Game III: Minnesota Twins (2-3) AT New York Yankees (3-2)
April 6, 2011 at 7:05 PM EST
SP: Min- Carl Pavano; NYY- Freddy Garcia
Opening Runline: NY -1.5 (+125), MIN +1.5 (-145)
Current Runline: NY -1.5 (+115), MIN +1.5 (-135)
Opening Moneyline: NYY -160 / Min +140
Current Moneyline: NYY -158 / Min +148
Opening Total: 10
Current Total: 10.5
The series is now split one game a piece. The Twins managed to pull out a rare victory over Twins-dominator C.C. Sabathia by virtue of taking advantage of Denard Span once Sabathia left the mound. Sabathia had shut the Twins down for seven innings.
Now, the Twins will be putting their ace on the mound. A victory here would represent the first time they have beat the Yankees back to back in nearly three years.
Carl Pavano experienced a good degree of success in 2010. His W-L record was 17-11 and his ERA was well below 4 (3.67 for good measure). His PECOTA projection isn’t as generous for this season, projecting a 6-6 record with a 4.22 ERA, which would be nestled between what he did in 2009 and 2010. Pavano only lasted four innings in the first game of the season and he gave up 7 earned runs in that game, earning himself the loss, a game which the Twins lost 13-3. Pavano has faced the Yankees 8 times, 4 in the regular season & 4 in the playoffs, and his record for those 8 games is 0-3 with a very respectable 3.83 ERA. He has, however, allowed 4 home runs in the last 3 starts against the Yankees.
The Twins have only won 7 of their last 38 games at Yankee Stadium, so winning two straight would be a definite aberration from the norm. “It’s never easy to play them, no matter where the game is. And even when you get a lead, those guys know how to win,” Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said. “Our boys showed a lot of courage. It was a great win.”
This will be his regular season appearance in a Yankee uniform for Freddy Garcia. Last season Garcia finished with a 4.64 ERA and a 12-6 record for the Chicago White Sox. His record against the Twins is 10-7 with a 4.04 ERA. His PECOTA projection is 7-7 with a 4.81 ERA. This is dictated by the fact that his ERA has increased every season he has been in the majors and was a much more respectable 4.20 in his rookie season, 2008.
Some betting trends:
Minnesota is 2-7 SU in their last 9 games and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 7 games. The total has also gone UNDER in 5 of their last 7 on the road and they are 3-9 SU in their last 12 road games. Minnesota is 3-18 SU in their last 21 games against the Yankees. The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Twins’ last 14 games against the NY Yankees and the total has also been UNDER in 4 of their last 5 road games in Yankee Stadium. Minnesota is 2-14 SU in their last 16 road games against the Yankees.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Yankees’ last 5 games and the total has also gone OVER in 7 of their last 8 at home. The Yankeese are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games at home and the total has gone UNDER in 10 of their last 14 against the Minnesota Twins. The Yankees are 18-3 SU in their last 21 against Minnesota and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 home games against the Twins. The Yankees are 14-2 SU in their last 16 games at home against the Twins.
Given the fact that Pavano played poorly in the season opener, it would seem like a bet against the Yankees might be in order; however, Pavano will likely rebound tonight and pitch a decent game, he’s too good to come out of the gate with back to back clunkers. Also worth noting was the fact that the Yankees’ games have been going OVER the run total so frequently.
