Miami Heat AT Dallas Mavericks
June 07, 2011 at 9 PM EST
Opening Line:  DAL -3
Current Line: DAL -3
Opening Total:  186.5
Current Total:  186.5
Opening Moneyline:  MIA -350, DAL +290
Current Moneyline:  DAL -150, MIA +130

Miami Leads Best of Seven 2-1

Things more or less went exactly how I said they would for Game Three.  Dwyane Wade proceeded to have another huge game, though he did shoot only 4 free throws.  He also hit the boards, pulling down 11 rebounds, three of which were on the offensive end.

Wade charted the phenomenon that has become a staple of this Miami Heat team:  bouncing back the game after losses:

“You can’t think about stuff like that. Everything in life happens for a reason,” Wade said Monday before practicing. “If we come in and we win that game, if we run away with that game, I don’t know if our sense of urgency is the same in Game 3. Who knows? So our sense of urgency was that way for a reason. We lost the game we know we shouldn’t. We are up 2-1. That’s what we have to focus on and worry about.”

Dirk Nowitzki did what was asked of him:  score a lot.  He put up 34 Sunday night, but it just wasn’t enough.  As I said in the Series Preview, the Mavs – much like the Bulls – are playing one on three.  I realize it isn’t quite THAT simple, but it is close.  Terry chipped in 15, but it took him 13 shots to do it, and Marion came up with only 10, after scoring 20 in the Game Two win.

Kidd kept his turnovers down to four, while racking up 10 assists.  You really can’t ask for any better play from a 38 year old point guard.  While he is no John Stockton statistically, he has made a name for himself and developed a deadly jump shot that he lacked in his first stint with Dallas (1994-1997) and his entire stint in Phoenix (1997-2001).  He hit over 40% from behind the arc for three seasons before suffering a bad year this year at only 34.0%.

The Mavs are not going to throw in the towel with Jason Kidd at the helm.  “We’re just too stubborn,” he bragged, and he did not make any allusions to being outmatched by the Heat, who won only one game more in the regular season.  And Kidd doesn’t believe that taking an edge in a 3 game stint means much:  “Nothing is promised to none of us,” he said. “You never know what’s going to happen in this game. If you get your opportunity, you have to seize it.”

Tyson Chandler took it a step further, declaring that he thinks the Mavs are still going to win the series and become this year’s champs.  “I still feel like we’re going to be NBA champs this year,” Chandler remarked.  “It’s a hard fight. Nobody said it’s going to be easy. I’ve got the ultimate respect for those guys on the other side.  It’s going to be a tough road, but I feel like we’re willing to do it.”

Erik Spolestra realizes things can easily go the other way, though.  If it weren’t for Dirk missing a shot he often hits, the Mavs would have forced overtime and possibly won.

“It’s a possession series,” Spoelstra said. “So many different things could happen during the course of the game. Make here, a miss here, a rebound here, a loose ball there, that can change the complexion of it.

It wasn’t a good shot for a final attempt, but sometimes it doesn’t matter with Nowitzki.  He’s capable of hitting shots most of us couldn’t manage to get to the rim.

Rick Carlisle acknowledges the supreme difficulty of stopping a team that has two of the best five players in the league:  “Those guys cause problems, and what we’ve got to do is we’ve got to approach it, we’ve got to guard each of those two great players with really all five of our guys,” Carlisle lamented.

Last game, I said that the Mavs would need 30+ from Nowitzki.  That turned out to be a true statement, but they are going to have to get more from Jason Terry.  He’s the number two scorer on the team and has to pick up the slack when Nowitzki isn’t doing his thing.

Some betting trends:

Miami is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 7 on the road.  The Heat are 4-1 SU in their last 5 road games and 2-11 SU in their last 13 against the Dallas Mavericks.  Miami is 8-15-1 ATS in their last 24 against Dallas and the total has gone UNDER in 7 of the last 10 on the road in Dallas.  Miami is 2-11 SU in their last 13 road games against the Mavs.

Dallas is 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 games and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 6 games.  Dallas is 11-3 SU in their last 14 games and the total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 6 at home.  The Mavs are 10-2 SU in their last 12 home games and they are 11-2 SU in their last 13 against the Heat.  The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas’ last 10 games at home against the Heat.  Dallas is 11-2 SU in their last 13 games at home against Miami while the Mavs are only 1-6 ATS in their last 7 at home against the Heat.

The Mavs were great at home this year, 29-12.  But the Heat led the NBA in road record going 28-13.  It’s tough to agree with the Mavs being favored in this matchup given what Miami has shown in this series, but they are at home and handicappers usually prefer to favor the home team in closely contested matchups.  Dirk is going to need a lot more help for Dallas to both win and cover the spread.