Game 3 WC Semis: Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers–Odds, Trends, Preview

Denver at Portland

Time: 9:30 PM CT (ESPN)

Series Tied 1-1

Spread: POR -4

Total: 214.5

Odds c/o 5dimes

The Portland Trail Blazers rebounded in Game 2 to take home court advantage in this series with its 97-90 victory. The series now tied, it shifts back to Portland where the Blazers are 4-point favorites in Game 3. The over/under is set at 214.5 points. Game 1 saw a total of 234 while Game 2 the teams combined for just 187. Pace has been the key, but it remains tough to gauge as usual. The game will tip off at 9:30 PM (CT) on ESPN.

Portland won game 2 despite some struggles from its superstar Damian Lillard. He shot just 5 of 17 en route to 14 points, four assists, and four rebounds. CJ McCollum led all Blazers’ scorers, but he shot just 8 of 20 (40 percent) to finish with 20 points, six assists, and six rebounds. Enes Kanter had an efficient 15 points and nine rebounds, but most importantly Kanter was able to limit Nuggets’ center Nikola Jokic, who had been a big problem in Game 1. Jokic had just 16 points, 14 rebounds, and seven assists while shooting 7 of 17 in Game 2. The Nuggets shot a horrid 34.7 percent from the field and connected on just 6 of 29 from downtown (20.7 percent).

The Nuggets did limit its turnovers to just nine and Denver held a +11 advantage on the glass: Both of those areas must be focus points for Portland in Game 2; it must be tougher on the glass and manage to force more miscues from the Nuggs’ highly efficient offense. The Nuggets have not been getting much out of former starter Will Barton, either. He shot just 1 of 6 from the field for four points in 17 minutes.

Third-year reserve Malik Beasley made a bigger difference with his 13 points, but he, too, was just 4 of 11 from the floor. Though Portland shot just 42 percent itself, the Blazers did get to the line 20 times (hitting 16) while connecting on a passable 31 percent from three. Both teams are plenty capable of scoring the basketball, but Game 2 was a defensive battle (and way UNDER the over/under). Which type of game will we see in Game 3,  a regression to the scoring battle of the series opener, or another defensive struggle? 74 percent of bettors on Covers are picking Portland to cover the 4-point spread at home.

ATS TRENDS (Trends C/o Covers):

Denver
  • Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Conference Semifinals games.
  • Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.
  • Nuggets are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 vs. NBA Northwest.
  • Nuggets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
  • Nuggets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Nuggets are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games playing on 1 days rest.
Portland
  • Trail Blazers are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Trail Blazers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Friday games.
  • Trail Blazers are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 games playing on 1 days rest.

OU TRENDS

Denver
  • Over is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 road games.
  • Over is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Over is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
  • Over is 5-1 in Nuggets last 6 Conference Semifinals games.
  • Over is 5-1 in Nuggets last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
  • Over is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • Over is 7-2 in Nuggets last 9 games playing on 1 days rest.
  • Over is 6-2 in Nuggets last 8 vs. NBA Northwest.
  • Under is 15-5 in Nuggets last 20 games following a ATS loss.
  • Under is 23-11 in Nuggets last 34 overall.
Portland
  • Over is 5-1 in Trail Blazers last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
  • Over is 12-3-1 in Trail Blazers last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Over is 16-4-1 in Trail Blazers last 21 home games.
  • Over is 4-1 in Trail Blazers last 5 Conference Semifinals games.
  • Over is 21-8-2 in Trail Blazers last 31 games playing on 1 days rest.
  • Over is 7-3 in Trail Blazers last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
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