Oklahoma City Thunder AT Denver Nuggets
April 23, 1011 at 10 PM EST
Opening Line: DEN -5.5
Current Line: DEN -4.5
Opening Moneyline: DEN -250, OKC +210
Current Moneyline: DEN -220, OKC +180
Opening Total: 205
Current Total: 206
OKC Leads Series 2-0
It’s odd to see a team that is down 0-2 that has been the underdog by a good margin in both games now is favored by 5.5 points at the opening. The main reason is because the Nuggets are very tough at home, where they posted a 33-8 record during the regular season.
Denver shooting guard Aaron Affalo has received clearing to play, but he doesn’t make excuses for the Nuggets’ play while he was out. “We’re healthy now,” Afflalo said. “No more excuses.” The Nuggets are expected to throw Afflalo at Oklahoma City superstar Russell Westbrook, but he also might see time covering Durant.
“He’s one of our most tough-minded, fundamentally sound, hard-nosed, winning guys on our team,” Nuggets coach George Karl said. “I mean, before he got hurt, he was playing the most minutes on the team. He played more minutes than Melo, he played more minutes than Chauncey. He’s a competitive, winning kid. Skill-wise, he doesn’t have greatness but he’s damn good in a lot of areas.”
Then, there was the fiasco with J.R. Smith, who complained at the lack of playing time and even insinuated he would definitely sign somewhere else this summer when he is a free agent.
George Karl just wants them to be good teammates and go along to get along: “I don’t want J.R. to be happy about not playing. I want J.R. to be angry,” Karl said. “I want Bird (Chris Andersen a.k.a. “Birdman”) to be angry. I want them all to be angry. I would be angry. I also want them to be teammates. I think J.R., more than ever, is showing that he wants to be that guy.”
Scott Brooks and the Thunder realize it is their team first approach that has enabled them to jump out with a 2-0 lead in the series. “It’s just all about playing together as a group, no matter who scores or who rebounds as long as you do it together.” Durant said.
Some betting trends:
Oklahoma City is 7-1 SU in their last 8 games and the total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City’s last 5 games. The total has also gone UNDER in 6 of Oklahoma City’s last 9 road games. OKC is 8-2 in their last 10 on the road and 5-1 SU in their last 6 games against the Denver Nuggets. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 against Denver, while it has gone OVER in 11 of Oklahoma City’s last 16 games on the road in Denver. Oklahoma City is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games on the road against the Nuggets.
Denver is 16-8 SU in their lsat 24 games and the total has gone UNDER in 16 of Denver’s last 24 games. Denver is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games and 12-1 SU in their last 13 at home. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver’s last 5 games against the Thunder and the Nuggets are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games at Oklahoma City. Denver is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 against OKC and 2-4 ATS in their last 6 at home against the OKC Thunder. The total has gone OVER in 11 of Denver’s last 16 games at home against the Thunder and the Nuggets are 7-1 SU in their last 8 home games against the Oklahoma City Thunder.’
The favoring of Oklahoma City still seems amiss for me. Denver is a great home team, but they haven’t looked good in this series and have yet to find a way to slow down Westbrook or Durant, which will probably be their demise yet again.
