Denver Nuggets AT Oklahoma City Thunder
April 20, 2011 at 8 PM EST
Opening Line: OKC -4.5
Current Line: OKC -4.5
Opening Moneyline: OKC -210, DEN +180
Current Moneyline: OKC -210, DEN +175
Opening Total: 206.5
Current Total: 205.5
Much as I said in my preview, stopping Durant does nothing to ensure the success of the opposing team. “Option 1A” Russell Westbrook also had a huge game, going for 31 points to go with Durant’s 41. Only one other Thunder player (Eric Maynor, 12 pts) was even in double figures yet the Thunder still scored 107 points. George Karl said after breaking down the tape, Durant and Westbrook shot 18 of 25 on jump shots, and 14 of the 18 came with a hand in the face.
If Durant and Westbrook continue to be that difficult to guard, I just don’t see a way the Nuggets can win this series. Durant and Westbrook are the second highest scoring tandem behind LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.
Karl was befuddled at what to do. The Nuggets’ defense did everything asked of it and it still wasn’t enough. “You want to overreact to that? You want to go off and double-team and give up open jump shots? I’m not there yet,” Karl said.
The Nuggets got a strong game from Brazilian forward Nenê, but his 22 points and 8 boards just weren’t enough, despite a strong game from Danilo Gallinari, who shot 6 of 11, including 4 of 6 from three, to score 18 points in 32 minutes of play. No Nugget played more than 34 minutes.
Kenyon Martin recalled how much better it was when the Nuggets countered Durant with Carmelo Anthony, who Durant could not sleep on defense on. Speaking of ‘Melo, Martin commented, “that boy beats you up bad when he’s got the ball, so that takes your legs a little bit.” Galinari will make Durant stay honest on defense, but his lack of movement without the ball takes away the chance of tiring out Durant’s legs. Martin, continuing his theory of Durant went on to say, You’ve got to make him guard, you’ve got to make him pass the ball—make him do the things that didn’t get him drafted. Scoring got him drafted. … They didn’t draft Kevin Durant because he’s an excellent passer or he’s a lockdown defender. I know this for a fact.”
Whether he was drafted as a defender or scorer matters little at this point. The fact is he is one of the best pure scorers to come through the NBA, ever, and his fluidity is a beautiful thing to watch. He’s the main reason most experts predicted this series to end in no more than 6 games, and some predicted 5. Durant said he’s not really worried about whether or not the Nuggets double team, and that “I’ve just got to worry about going out there and playing my game, just going out there and playing hard and being aggressive on the offensive end and going from there. If they do double, I know I’ve got faith in my teammates that they’ll come through.”
Some betting trends:
Denver is 16-7 SU in their last 23 games and the total has gone UNDER in 15 of their last 23 games. It has also gone UNDER in 9 of their last 13 on the road and the Nuggets are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Denver is 12-6 SU in their last 18 games against the Thunder and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of the last 6 against Oklahoma City. The total has gone OVER in 12 of the last 18 games against the Thunder and the total has also gone OVER in 8 of the last 11 road games against the Thunder. Denver is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games on the road in Oklahoma City.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oklahoma City’s last 6 games and the Thunder are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games. The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home and the total has gone OVER In 4 of Oklahoma City’s last 5 games at home. The Thunder are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games at home and the Thunder are 6-12 SU in their last 18 against Denver. Oklahoma City is 4-1 SU in their last 5 against Denver and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of the last 6 against the Nuggets. The total has gone OVER in 12 of the last 18 games against Denver and also has gone OVER in 8 of the last 11 home games against the Nuggets. Oklahoma CIty is 4-1 SU in their last 5 home games against Denver.
Look for the Thunder to come out firing on all cylinders once again. The Nuggets have no one at point guard strong enough and quick enough to match up with Westbrook and almost no team in the league has a solid answer for Durant
