Miami Heat AT Chicago Bulls
May 18, 2011 at 8:30 PM EST
Opening Line: CHI -2
Current Line: CHI -3
Opening Total: 182
Current Total: 181.5
Chicago Leads Series 1-0
The Heat may have dropped game one by 21 points, but LeBron James isn’t going to let it discourage he and his Heat teammates. He realizes that most of the time the Heat bounce back after bad games to perform significantly better, after making adjustments:
“We’ve been able to bounce back this year no matter if it’s been the regular season or the postseason,” James said. “Learn from mistakes in the previous game and then move on. We’ve done that. We’re looking forward to the challenge, we’re excited about tomorrow’s opportunity to be here and try to steal homecourt.”
In game one, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade combined to go 12 of 32 from the field (37.5%) and Wade’s +/- was at -22, worse than any other Heat player. In addition to the abysmal shooting, Wade and James each turned it over 4 times as well, leading to 16 total Miami turnovers.
Chris Bosh did come out effective and get the best of Boozer (and to a lesser extent Taj Gibson, who came off the Bulls bench to score 9 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 blocks, while also posting the second highest +/- on the Bulls at +17; Deng was +18), scoring 30 points on 12 of 18 shooting and 6 of 6 from the line.
In addition to Gibson’s stellar play, Deng out played LeBron James, something few could have predicted. In the series preview I said it would be very difficult for Deng to hold LeBron under 25 given the nature of the series, but it turns out I was wrong. I also predicted Miami in 5 or 6, something that almost certainly looks wrong after the way things went down in game one.
Despite his strong performance, Deng thinks he and the Bulls can do better still: “I think we’ve got to play better,” said Deng, who scored 21 points. “I really do. We played really well. If you look at the final score, we won by a lot, but it really wasn’t that kind of game. It really wasn’t. It was tied at the half. They had the lead at some point in the third quarter. So there’s a lot of things we’ve got to get better at.”
It has been Bosh that had been deferring all season long to Wade and James, but in game one he took more shots than both his stud teammates. And in typical fashion, the Heat got no offense whatsoever out of Joel Anthony at center, though he did hold Noah to 4 of 14 shooting. As to why Noah shot 14 times given his lack of offensive prowess is anyone’s guess.
The Bulls looked to be in control the entire game, after shaking off a rough first few minutes. Tom Thibodeau credited the Miami ball movement and isolation mix for the Heat’s success. “Miami’s been a good ball-movement team all year,” he said. “They have players that when the ball comes back to them, they can go one-on-one. That’s what makes them so dangerous and tough to guard. Sometimes, your best ball movement comes off isolation because you have to commit two defenders to the player, and once the ball moves, now you’re getting wide open shots or easier shots.”
Some betting trends:
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami’s last 7 games and the Heat are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games. The Heat are 7-3 SU in their last 10 on the road and the total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Heat’s last 14 games against the Bulls. The Heat are 1-4 SU in their last 5 against Chicago and the Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against the Bulls. The total has gone UNDER In 6 of Miami’s last 8 games on the road in Chicago and the Heat are 1-5 SU in their last 6 road games in Chicago.
The Bulls are 18-3 SU in their last 21 games and the Bulls are 23-2 SU in their last 25 at home. The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Chicago’s last 14 games against the Heat and the Bulls are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against the Miami Heat. The Total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago’s last 8 games when playing the Heat at home and the Bulls are 5-1 SU in their last 6 at home against the Heat.
The Bulls took the driver’s seat in game 1 and appeared to have all the right answers for everyone except Bosh. Given Miami’s lack of depth and role players, it is going to require at least 2 of Miami’s big 3 to have big games for Miami to win. James and Wade are both up against tough defenders but they have to be the aggressor and take it to the hole or the Bulls will go up 2 games to 0.
