Chicago Bulls AT Philadelphia 76ers
January 7th, 2011 at 7:00 PM EST
Opening Line: Chicago -1
Current Line: Chicago -1.5
Opening Total: 191
Current Total: 190
Opening Moneyline: Chicago -105 / Philadelphia +115
Current Moneyline: Chicago -120 / Philadelphia +100
Chicago comes into tonight’s game as winners of 7 of their last 10 games, and they currently sit half a game ahead of Orlando in the 3 spot of the East, but they are 3.5 games behind #2 Miami and 4 full games behind Conference leading Boston. Philadelphia has played decent basketball since going on a hot streak that was sparked by their strong defensive play. They have won but 4 of their last 10, and despite being 7 games under .500 they are still in the 8th spot in the Eastern Conference and would face the Celtics if the Playoffs started today.
Chicago last lost on a buzzer beating layup by Sasha Vujacic in New Jersey. Mysteriously, their big free agent signing, Carlos Boozer, sat the last 14 minutes of the game. Star point guard Derrick Rose commented, “Yeah, we were surprised (Boozer didn’t come back in). But we’re not going to try to coach. We’re going to do our jobs and that’s to play. We’re going to leave the subbing up to (coach Tom Thibodeau).” The Bulls trailed by 13 going into the last quarter, and even without Boozer they cut the lead down and tied the score before the buzzer beater by Vujacic.
The last time these teams met, Chicago romped the Sixers, winning by 45 points, but the line set by NBA oddsmakers for tonight is close, perhaps because of the Sixers strong play at home (9-6), but certainly NOT predicated upon the last meeting between the teams.
Some betting trends:
Chicago is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games and they have went 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games. The total has gone UNDER in 10 of their last 14 games on the road. Chicago is 4-2 SU in their last 6 road games and 5-1 SU in their last 6 against Philly. The total has gone OVER in 10 of their last 12 games in Philadelphia and it has gone OVER in 5 of the last 6 road games against Philadelphia.
The total has gone OVER In 4 of Phillly’s last 5 games. It has gone OVER In 5 of their last 7 at home, as well. They are 8-2 SU in their last 10 home games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against the Bulls.
Key Matchups:
Derrick Rose vs Jrue Holiday
Jrue Holiday has impressed Sixers management and fans and appears to be a part of their long term plans, as a key cornerstone of the franchise. Looking at his season stats, it’s easy to see why. He’s currently averaging 14.6 points per game and 6.5 assists per game (19th in the league) and is coming off an impressive 26 point, 9 assist, 4 rebound game in their trouncing of the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday night. Last game against the Bulls, he managed only 9 points, but that was due to the fact that he only played 22 minutes since the game was not close at any point. He has the size to matchup against Derrick Rose (he’s 6’4″) but will have a tough time with the All-star, who is averaging 23.8 points a game. Rose hasn’t played his best ball recently, however, as he has scored under 20 in 3 of the last 5 games and he managed only one assist in the last game against New Jersey. In the blowout last game between these teams he went for 22 points and 12 assists in only 19 minutes of play. Holiday is a good defender, but the problem is that when he gets beat on the dribble, Philly’s interior defense is weak and won’t be able to mask his blunder.
Carlos Boozer vs Elton Brand
There was a time in Brand’s career when he would easily get the best of Boozer in this matchup, but since his knee surgery that preceeded his signing with the Sixers, he has never been the same and at age 31, he’s put a lot of “miles” on his surgically repaired knee. That said, he is still a productive player and is having his best season since joining the Sixers. He’s averaging 14.9 points per game and 8.7 boards a night in 34 minutes of play and he’s averaged 15.5 points and 8 boards over his last two games. Boozer, as mentioned previously, was benched for the last 14 minutes of the loss to New Jersey, but is expected to start tonight. He’s had a double double in his last 4 meetings against the Sixers and is just shy of having a typical for him 20-10 season this year.
The line is set closer than I would imagine for a meeting between these teams and Chicago looks like a good bet to cover the spread. They did demolish the Sixers last meeting between the teams and Vegas oddsmakers have mysteriously set the line close on this one.
