#5 Boise St Broncos at Fresno St Bulldogs
Bulldog Stadium – Fresno, California
Friday, October 7, 2011, 9:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Boise St -20
Current Line: Boise St -20 1/2
Opening Total: 57
Current Total: 58 1/2
Opening Money Line: Boise St -1100 / Fresno St +750
Current Money Line: Boise St -1100 / Fresno St +750

For the second week in a row the 4-0 #5 Boise St Broncos take on a former WAC rival and future Mountain West foe. Boise St travels to 2-3 Fresno St Friday night, after beating Nevada in Boise last week 30-10. Boise St, coached by Chris Petersen, has other wins against Georgia in Atlanta 35-21, at Toledo 40-15, and at home against Tulsa 41-21. Fresno St is coached by Pat Hill, and has wins at against North Dakota 27-22 and at Idaho 48-24, along with losses to California 36-21 in San Francisco, 42-29 at Nebraska, and last week 38-28 at home to Ole Miss. Boise St leads the series 9-4, including last year in Boise 51-0. The Broncos have won 5 straight in the series and haven’t lost at Fresno since 2005.

Boise St was up 30-0 last week against rival Nevada in Boise at the end of the third quarter. Nevada scored 10 fourth quarter points to avoid the shutout and more importantly cover the 27.5 point spread. The game was a little sloppy as both teams had 10 penalties and 2 turnovers. Boise St held Nevada to 182 total yards and 12 first downs. The Broncos only had 329 yards themselves and 22 first downs. Boise quarterback Kellen Moore threw 2 touchdowns but he also threw 2 picks. Running back Doug Martin had 21 carries, 126 yards, and 2 touchdowns.

Boise St is averaging 446.8 total yards and 36.5 points a game. The Broncos throw for 303.2 yards a game. The Broncos have 5 turnovers and have allowed two sacks this year. Boise is 29/64 on third and fourth down conversions, and 16/20 scoring in the red zone with 15 touchdowns. The Broncos are allowing 298.8 yards and 16.8 points a game. Teams are rushing for 112.2 yards a game against the Broncos. Boise has forced 9 turnovers and 9 sacks so far this season. Bronco opponents are 15/56 on third and fourth down conversions, and 6/8 scoring in the red zone with 4 touchdowns.

Moore is 102/138 passing for 1,137 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions this year.  Martin has 85 carries, for 328 yards, and 4 touchdown runs, along with 13 catches, 158 yards, and a touchdown. D.J. Harper has 41 carries, 158 yards, and a touchdown, along with 4 catches for 34 yards and a touchdown. Mitch Burrows has 21 catches, 216 yards and a touchdown along with 4 carries for 22 yards. Matt Miller has 20 catches, 206 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Tyler Shoemaker has 13 catches, for 202 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Tight end Kyle Efaw has 11 catches, 92 yards, and 3 touchdowns. Kicker Dan Goodale is 14/16 on extra points and 1/1 on field goals with a 31 yard kick, and Michael Frisina is 3/4 on extra points. The Broncos are banged up on the offensive line with 3 offensive linemen listed as questionable, doubtful, or out.

Fresno St hosted the Ole Miss Rebels last week. Fresno was up 28-27 at the end of the third quarter, because of a blocked extra point in the first half by the Bulldogs. The Rebels scored 11 fourth quarter points to win 38-28. The Bulldogs had 444 total yards including 281 passing yards by Bulldog quarterback Derek Carr. Carr also threw a touchdown and an interception. He also rushed for a touchdown despite having only 5 carries for -12 yards. Running back Robbie Rouse had 28 carries, 123 yards, and a touchdown. Jalen Saunders had 6 catches for 127 yards along with 2 carries for 57 yards and a touchdown. The Bulldogs had 2 turnovers in the game. Ole Miss had 430 total yards including 216 rushing yards.

Fresno St is averaging 387.6 yards, including 258.2 passing yards a game. The Bulldogs score 30.6 points a game. Fresno St has 7 turnovers and has allowed 11 sacks this season. The Bulldogs are 30/79 on third and fourth down conversions, and 13/15 scoring in the red zone with 11 touchdowns. The Bulldogs are giving up 381.4 yards, including 172.4 rushing yards a game. The Bulldogs are allowing 32.4 points a game. Fresno has forced 5 turnovers and 8 sacks this season. Bulldog opponents are 30/76 on third and fourth down conversions, and 14/15 scoring in the red zone with 12 touchdowns.

Carr is 101/165 passing for 1,291 yards, 10 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He also has 2 rushing touchdowns despite rushing for -55 yards on the season. Rouse has 133 carries, for 600 yards, and 4 touchd0wns, along with 7 catches for 43 yards. Five Bulldog receivers have at least 13 catches this season. Saunders has 17 receptions, 462 yards, and 4 touchdowns, along with 3 carries for 60 yards and a touchdown. Devon Wylie has 16 catches for 214 yards. Rashad Evans has 23 catches, 193 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Josh Harper has 13 catches, for 184 yards, and 3 scores. Isaiah Burse has 16 catches for 86 yards. Kicker Kevin Goessling is 18/18 on extra points but only 5/9 on field goals with a long of 48 yards.

Fresno St is 2-3 against the spread this season and 4 of the 5 games have gone over the total. Boise St is 2-2 ATS this season, and 3 of the 4 have gone under the total. Boise has won 5 games in a row in the series all by double digits. Boise St is 21-7 in their last 28 road games, including 16-5 as a road favorite, 19-7 in their last 26 on grass, 15-6 in the last 21 on Friday nights, and 28-13-1 in their last 42 overall. Fresno St is 16-34-3 ATS in their last 53 home games, 3-8 ATS in the last 11 as a home underdog, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Friday night games, 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 October games, and 0-4 in their last 4 vs. Mountain West teams.

Boise has dominated this series recently and I see no reason for that trend to end in this game. Boise St bettors have been the victim of  backdoor covers in the last 2 weeks against Nevada and Tulsa. Boise should win this game easily if they are properly motivated, and don’t take their foot off the gas.

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