A pair of playoff hopefuls square off in a crucial three-game series at Tropicana Field this weekend, starting with Friday’s clash that’s highlighted by All-Star southpaws.
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Boston is currently 5 1/2 games back of Tampa Bay and New York in the AL East divisional race, as both of those teams share the best record in baseball. The Red Sox have fallen in eight of the last 12 meetings against the Rays, but are 3-3 at Tropicana Field. “We have to go there and at least win the series,” third baseman Adrian Beltre said. “I think we’re going to go in there looking for a sweep, so we can get a better chance to cut the deficit.” The club has six games left with both division leaders and the team must remain focused on winning a majority of those 12 games. Boston has been playing around with numbers and if the squad can win 25 of its last 34 games, either the Rays or Yankees would have to go 19-16 for them to reach the postseason. The Red Sox are 10-6 this season as a road underdog of +100 to +125 (+500) and the total is 8-7 O/U in those contests. They’ve played only six games in a dome in 2010, producing an even 3-3 mark, while posting a dismal 12-24 record the last three seasons (-1,240).
Red Sox starting pitcher Jon Lester is 13-8 with a 3.26 ERA in 25 starts this season and is coming off one of his worst career outings. In his last start versus the Blue Jays at home, he allowed nine runs on eight hits over just two frames, managing to collect just a single strikeout and surrendering two home runs. The left-hander is 7-3 with a 2.46 ERA in 12 road starts, allowing opponents to hit for a .194 combined average. He will be making his 15th career start versus the Rays, going 7-3 with a 4.18 ERA, but has given up 11 long balls in 84 innings. In three starts on turf in 2010, he has posted a perfect 3-0 record and 0.95 ERA.
Tampa Bay suffered its most lopsided defeat of the season on Wednesday afternoon afternoon, a 12-3 loss to the Los Angeles Angels, snapping the team’s four-game losing streak in the final game of a West Coast trip. “We usually struggle when we come out here, but we went 4-3, so we’re happy with that,” outfielder Carl Crawford said. The Rays have won 19 of their last 24 games at Tropicana Field, starting that run with a three-game sweep of tonight’s opponent from July 5-7. Playing on Friday has been a nightmare for the young squad, posting a 3-16 record this season (-2,420), but there’s a definitive chance of turning this around with a 38-32 record on this day the past three years (-550). The team is 29-18 against divisional opponents (+700) and the total is 26-20 O/U in those games.
Rays starting pitcher David Price is 15-5 with a 2.97 ERA in 24 starts this season and the team has won his last three outings. In those starts, Tampa Bay has outscored opponents by a 17-11 margin, while he has allowed eight runs and 16 hits over 16 innings of work. The left-hander is 7-1 with a 2.11 ERA in 11 home starts, as opponents are hitting for a .211 average. He has surrendered just four home runs at Tropicana Field and hasn’t given up a big fly in his last five starts overall. In three career starts versus the Red Sox, Price has produced a 2-1 record and 3.79 ERA, including a 6-4 home victory on July 7. In that start, he allowed just two runs and scattered eight hits over 7.2 frames, while tallying 10 punch outs.
Bettors will find that the Red Sox are just 2-8 in Lester’s last 10 starts on field turf despite his outstanding numbers. Tampa Bay’s troubles on Friday may only worsen, as the club is 0-5 in its last five games following an off day.
