According to our college football betting odds page, the Wolverines opened as 15 point road favorites. But that has been bet down through the week, first to 13 ½, then 11 ½, and down to 10 points. There was some buy back on Michigan that moved the line back to 10 ½ points, but most books are listing the game at 10. In typical reverse action fashion, the squares are playing Michigan at about 3:1.
The technical numbers are decidedly in Indiana’s favor. Over the past 3 years against the spread, Michigan has been terrible in situations such as this. They’re 3-13 against conference opponents, 3-7 on the road, 4-10 as a favorite, 1-7 in October and 3-8 against teams with a winning record. The Hoosiers haven’t been strong either, but certainly better than Michigan. Indiana is 7-9 against conference opponents, 8-10 as an underdog, 6-8 at home, and 6-5 against teams with a winning record. Although the wiseguys use sophisticated databases to filter gobs of information, these numbers speak volumes, nonetheless.
Having said that, Michigan should be able to run all over Indiana. The Wolverines are averaging a gaudy 331 yards per game on the ground at a clip of 6.6 yards per carry. Indiana is giving up 177 rushing yards per game at an average of 5.2 yards per rush. The Hoosiers’ rush defense looks even worse after noticing that they’ve played Towson, Western Kentucky, and Akron – not exactly college football powerhouses.
While Michigan should find success on the ground, Indiana should have it through the air. Michigan’s much maligned defense has allowed an average of 265 passing yards, and 400 total yards per game. Injuries in the secondary have taken a toll. Indiana has been putting up solid passing numbers – over 300 yards per game, nearly 70% completion, and 8.7 yards per attempt.
This game has the feel of a shootout. The opening total for the game was 66 points, and that’s moved down slightly to 65 or 65 ½ depending upon the book. The public is playing the over at a little more than 90%. But it’s worth noting that so far this season, Indiana has played the total 0-2, while Michigan has played it 1-2.
Denard Robinson was injured in Michigan’s most recent game against Bowling Green. However, he only twisted his knee and is listed as probable for the game at Indiana. Robinson’s back-up and last year’s starter, Tate Forcier, also tweaked his knee last Saturday, but he’s expected to be available if need be.
Michigan has owned this series over the past 18 years, going 12-0 straight up. But they’re only 6-5 against the spread. Last year Michigan won at the Big House, 36-33, coming nowhere near covering the spread of 18 ½ points. So Indiana is looking for revenge after the close loss last year, and undoubtedly wants to end Michigan’s dominance in the series.
Playing Indiana at +15 was the best move, and if you managed to get them early, good for you. If that’s the case, go ahead and grab Michigan at -10 and hope for the middle. The opening line was too much for Michigan, but now the line is starting to feel a little low. But in evaluating this match-up, don’t forget about the technical numbers. It’s hard to trust Michigan in this situation. While they should be able to continue their winning ways against the Hoosiers, Indiana at +10 is still the better play.
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