The New England Patriots will try to beat the Cincinnati Bengals for the fourth straight time and win their seven season opener in a row when they meet on Sunday in Foxboro.  The Patriots opened at -6 and have been bet down to -4.5 and -5 in some spots in a battle between two division winners from a year ago that fizzled in the playoffs and reloaded in the offseason.

The Patriots will have a healthy Wes Welker back in the lineup after undergoing knee surgery and a rich Tom Brady under center after he became the richest played in NFL history on Friday.  Brady just inked a new deal following a car accident on Thursday and should remain the league’s top paid player at least until Indy’s Peyton Manning re-signs.  He was not hurt in the accident and defended the value of wide receiver Randy Moss, who is in the final year of his contract.

The problem in New England outside of Moss’ unhappiness due to the lack of a new deal though is on the defensive side of the ball, where defensive end Ty Warren (hip) and cornerback Leigh Bodden (knee) are out for the season with injuries.  The Pats were destroyed at home in a 33-14 playoff loss to the Ravens last January 10^th and had hoped to be healthy eight months later.  Instead, a young defense will be tested even more with Warren and Bodden out.

Without Boden in the game, the Bengals offense will get to face a couple of inexperienced cornerbacks in second-year player Darius Butler and rookie Devin McCourty.  That should give Cincinnati wide receivers Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens plenty of opportunities to make plays if quarterback Carson Palmer can get them the ball.

Cincy may not have to depend on the pass to win this game if running back Cedric Benson can follow up last season’s comeback effort with a big performance.  Benson is coming off the first 1,000-yard season of his career (1,251) after he failed to impress in his first three years with Chicago.  New England gave up 110.5 yards per game on the ground last year but allowed only six rushing touchdowns, which ranked third-best in the NFL.

Brady & Co. do not have the luxury of a balanced offensive attack like the Bengals and might be forced to score through the air against a very solid secondary.  Cincinnati allowed 203.1 passing yards per game last season and had 19 interceptions.  The Patriots lacked a 1,000-yard rusher a year ago, as starter Laurence Maroney finished with 757 yards.  New England will probably need to get something from Maroney or the other running backs if they are going to top the Bengals.

While we offer free NFL picks via our newsletter we will also post an occasional free winner here on the blog and will do that today.  We like the over 44 in todays game, with New England’s defense looking shaky and both offenses potent, we see this one going up and over the total.