Free NFL Picks: Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles

Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, 11/7/2010, 4:15 PM EST, TV: CBS
Opening Point Spread: Philadelphia -2.5
Current Betting Line: Philadelphia -3
Opening Total: 47
Current Total: 46.5
Current Moneyline: Philadelphia -160 / Indianapolis +140

Indianapolis will need a big game from WR Reggie Wayne to pull off the upset on Sunday in Philadelphia

Indianapolis has come full circle after two losses to open the season and has sole possession of first place in the AFC South. The Colts have won six of eight division crowns and been in first place for all but 28 weeks over the past 8 1/2 seasons. “We’re not concerned about standings,” said head coach Jim Caldwell. “We’re concerned about getting better and getting ourselves in the best position to play well on Sunday.” One thing the team may be concerned with in this contest is fatigue, coming off a 30-17 home win on Monday Night Football over the Texans, while the Eagles are coming off a bye week. In fact, Philadelphia will be the third Colts opponent this season that will play Indianapolis coming off a bye week. The team is 3-0 ATS as a road underdog of three points or less and are getting three points on the NFL lines page.

The Colts are a perfect 6-0 against NFC opponents in the regular season under Caldwell. A fifth consecutive victory over Philadelphia would put Indianapolis back on pace for an eighth straight 12-win season. Quarterback Peyton Manning has completed 69.6 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns and one interception in three games against today’s opponent. The team has had success in recent years in short weeks after playing in Sunday night or Monday games, but something will give this week. “Your off day is kind of that Monday-Tuesday combined, but I do think it provides a tough challenge with us on a short week and them coming off a bye,” Manning stated.

Philadelphia is expected to send quarterback Michael Vick into his first week of action in three weeks after suffering a rib injury. “I definitely have to be smarter when running with the football, trying to get down,” Vick stated. “I just have to be conscious of what’s going on out there.” Eagles head coach Andy Reid should have the entire team ready to play coming off a bye week, as the team is a perfect 11-0 in this situation under his direction. The team has had two weeks to stew over a disappointing 37-19 loss at Tennessee, a game in which they allowed 27 fourth-quarter points, the most surrendered by an NFL team in over two years. Philly is 17-6 ATS after a bye week and the total is 5-18 Over/Under in those games.

The Eagles are 1-2 at home this season and the Colts are 2-2 on the road in 2010. Under Reid, Philadelphia has a .700 winning percentage in November and December, which ranks second in the NFL during that period. Over the past four seasons, the team has recorded a 23-11-1 record during these two months, which is the NFL’s fourth-best mark over that span. Over the course of the team’s 11-game winning streak coming off a bye, the Birds have averaged 23.64 points a game, while opponents scored just 12.27 points per game.