The Steelers opened as 1 ½ point favorites. The line held steady for most of the week, but in the past day or two the line moved up to 2 ½. However, 5 Dimes and SportBet are still listing the game at 1 ½ points. Given the way Pittsburgh’s defense has shut down opponents, 3 points or less feels like a quality play. If you can grab 1 ½, do so. But don’t be afraid to back the Steelers at 2 ½ points.
The main reason why Pittsburgh should win and cover is the running game. On the one side of the ball, Baltimore’s rush offense hasn’t been as productive as many people thought it would be. As a team, the Ravens are averaging an unimpressive 89 yards per game on 3.1 yards per carry. They’ve played a couple good rush defenses in the Jets and Bengals. But they weren’t able to dominate the Browns at home, which says something about where this team is at.
The Steelers’ rush D has been phenomenal. They’re giving up 60 yards per game and only 2.6 yards per carry. And they’ve done it against teams like Atlanta and Tennessee, who both have elite running backs. Baltimore’s Ray Rice is probable for the game, but he’s banged up. Even if he was healthy, though, he’d have a hard time finding holes in the Steel Curtain.
On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh has been able to run effectively even with a diminished passing attack. Rashard Mendenhall is stepping up, and the physical Pittsburgh offensive line has been doing its job. As a team, Pittsburgh is averaging 150 yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry. They’ll line up against a Raven defense that has been subpar against the run this year. The vaunted Raven D has given up 128 rushing yards per game and an average of 4.7 yards per carry.
Another reason to like Pittsburgh in this match-up is the turnover game. The Steelers are +6 and have 10 takeaways, thanks primarily to the 7 they grabbed against the Titans in Tennessee. Baltimore, on the other hand, is -6. Surprisingly, they have just 1 takeaway. If the Steelers can have a couple extra possessions, their rushing game should be able to wear down the Raven defense, chew up the clock, and maintain control of the game.
Lastly, playing at home is definitely an advantage. That’s why this spread is hard to figure. Oddsmakers are saying that on a neutral field, Baltimore would be a slight favor. I just don’t buy that, even without Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers have been playing on a higher level. Having said that, home field advantage should pay dividends. They’re 3-0 straight up against Baltimore at home in their recent match-ups, and 4-1 regardless of where the game was played.
The one drawback is that Baltimore is 7-1 against the spread as a road underdog of 3 points or less in the past 3 seasons, and Pittsburgh is 0-3 as a home favorite of 3 points over less in the same period of time. That is some reason for worry, but look for the Steelers to reverse that trend on Sunday. Perhaps oddsmakers have kept this spread at a field goal or less so that bettors would see those tendencies. Don’t be afraid to back the better team at home – they have good value at 3 points or less.
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