The Miami Dolphins deserve a break. They hosted the Patriots in week 1 and the Texans in week 2. They played well enough in each game, but dropped them both. They travel to Cleveland this weekend for a date with the Browns, a team that has been blessed with a much easier schedule early on. The Browns have lost to the Bengals at home and won at Indy last Sunday.
Cleveland opened as 1 point favorite, but that’s been moved up to 2 ½. While the Browns are satisfied with their 1-1 mark and the play of their defense, consider fading the slight home favorite and back a good road team with a couple points as our free nfl picks for this sunday.
Don’t be intimidated by the numbers here. Sure, Cleveland’s defense appears to be awesome while Miami’s looks like crap. But let’s be honest – the Browns lost to an average (at best) Cincy team starting a rookie quarterback. The next week they managed to beat the Peyton Manning-less Colts, 27-19. That same Colts team was down five touchdowns at halftime the week before, and only scored one offensive touchdown, and that’s only because the game was over so early. Thus, after two games, the Cleveland defense is allowing just 289.5 yards per game. Big deal.
The Dolphins, on the other hand, had the misfortune of facing the Pats and their new look, no huddle offense. Then they hooked up with the Texans and their talented offense. After two games, Miami’s defense is allowing 483.5 yards per game. Big deal.
Miami has played two considerably tougher opponents than Cleveland, and the numbers reflect that. But the advantage for Miami is that they should be much better prepared for this game than Cleveland.
The Miami offense has been surprisingly decent. They put up nearly 500 yards against the Pats and over 300 yards against the Texans. Chad Henne looked better in week 1 than he did in week 2, and Brandon Marshall has been very good in both games. However, Anthony Fasano had zero catches last week. Henne needs to make a point of changing that.
The Dolphins should also be encouraged by the effort of Daniel Thomas, the rookie running back out of Kansas State. In his first game with Miami last week, Thomas topped the 100 yard mark. Not bad for a rookie in his first time out. Between Henne, Marshall, Fasano, and Thomas, the Dolphins have by far the best offense that Cleveland has seen to date.
Moreover, Cleveland hasn’t been that good on offense, and neither the Bengals nor the Colts have a defense to write home about. McCoy had a better game last week, going 22 for 32 for 211 yards, 1 td, and no picks. But Peyton Hillis is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry, a full yard lower than his average from last season. Rumors have been swirling that Hillis was injured in practice on Friday, so look out for that, too.
Also keep in mind that the Dolphins were extraordinarily good on the road last year. They were 6-2 straight up, with wins at Green Bay and the Jets. At home they were 1-7 straight up, with losses to Cleveland, Buffalo, and Detroit to close the season. For reasons I can’t understand, this team was especially good on the road and equally poor at home. After dropping two home games, I wonder if Miami is relieved to be playing on the road.
From my perspective, the Browns have been somewhat disappointing and the Dolphins are right about where I expected them to be. I think Miami’s offensive personnel is far superior to Cleveland’s and the defensive numbers are weighted by uneven competition. Consider playing a slight road ‘dog with recent success away from home. Best of luck.
Maddux Sports is locked and loaded with a 20 unit NFL pick lined up for today. We crushed the bookmakers on Saturday and will look to do the same today.
