The opening line for the game was a pick, but early in the week the line went to Atlanta favored by a point, and then two, and now the NFL betting odds are sitting between 1 ½ and 2 ½ points, depending upon the site. The squares are definitely lining up behind Matt Ryan and company, playing Atlanta at better than 2:1. However, the Bears should be better than people think this year and they’re playing at home. Consider fading the public favorite Falcons and grabbing a few points with the Bears.
I can’t believe that I’m typing these words, but there’s a lot to like about the Bears’ offense. Jay Cutler has a very good arm. You might not like the guy for whatever reason, but he still has a cannon. He’s been known to make some poor decisions, but last year he showed a lot of poise and definitely took steps forward, especially considering his under-talented receiving corps. Importantly, Mike Martz is the Chicago offensive coordinator. Say what you want about Martz’s head coaching abilities, but the guy is an offensive genius. Kurt Warner and Rams fans would likely agree.
Matt Forte is coming off a breakout year, and although he didn’t get the contract he wanted, he’s ready to go. Roy Williams was brought in from Dallas to upgrade one of the League’s less heralded receiving units. Throw in Devin Hester and Johnny Knox, and the skill position players are good enough to do some damage on teams.
As everyone knows, though, the Bears’ defense is the heart of this football team. Brian Urlacher is healthy and patrolling the middle of the field. Lance Briggs, who has avowedly put his professionalism ahead of any contract desires, will still be at outside linebacker. Charles Tillman will line up at cornerback. And Julius Peppers will still be at defensive end. Those four players are all good enough to be Pro Bowl starters in any given year and they’re all on the same defense.
The Falcons should have a nice team this year. With Ryan, Roddy White, Michael Turner, and now Julio Jones, Atlanta should have enough firepower to play with some top-notch defenses. However, their defense still has some serious question marks, especially in the secondary.
Moreover, which of these two teams is likely to play with a hangover from last year? My thinking is the Falcons. They were the #1 seed in the NFC and had a clear path to the Super Bowl via their own dome. As many pundits and fans talked about, the Falcons are nearly unbeatable at home with Matt Ryan. Then the Packers came to town and exposed Atlanta’s weak secondary, along with a lack of physicality that is sometimes overlooked.
All things considered, Atlanta is going into a hostile environment to play a physical football team that plays great defense and can potentially abuse a weak secondary. The public has been all over the Falcons, but think about fading this public favorite and taking the points.
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