The Jets opened as 4 ½ point home favorites, but the line jumped to 6 points earlier in the week and has stayed there. The public is slightly favoring the Packers at just under 55%, which means the wiseguys are laying points with the Jets. Although the Pack is coming off a big win over Minnesota, we recommend fading the public favorite in this match up and backing the Jets.
New York has been great against the spread this year, going 5-1 overall. They’ve covered their last five games and are coming off the bye. Since 1992, the Jets are 14-7 ats coming off the bye and 14-5 against the NFC North. Green Bay has been a disappointing 3-4 ats this year and 1-2 on the road. Since 1992, they’re 8-13 against the AFC East.
The Jets received a good amount of criticism early in the season. The team had done a lot of talking coming into the year, and then lost at home to Baltimore in week 1. But since then, the Jets have been the type of dominating football team that they said they would be. They’ve won their last five football games, and the offense has developed into a powerful unit. The defense, as we all know, is very good.
The defense is giving up 90 yards per game on the ground, and 319 total yards. While they’re giving up 229 yards through the air, quarterbacks are completing less than 50% of their passes. Having a healthy Darrelle Revis makes the D even better.
The offense has been surprisingly effective, especially after their week 1 disaster against Baltimore. The resurgence of LaDanian Tomlinson has been a big boost. Along with Shonn Greene, these two backs are one of the best tandems in the League, along with backs in Miami and Kansas City. The Jets are averaging a gaudy 159 yards per game on the ground. They’re second in the NFL in rushing behind Kansas City. Mark Sanchez has settled into a nice season. He’s making good decisions, not turning the ball over, and completing third down passes. The Jets are averaging 175 yards passing, which gives the team great balance.
The Packer defense has played very well this season, but they’ve had trouble against the run in recent weeks. In their last two home games against Minnesota and Miami, the D has given up a combined 346 yards rushing. As far as total yards, they gave up about 400 yards each game. One of the main reasons has to be the injuries that Green Bay has had to deal with. Losing Nick Barnett for the season really hurt, and they’re still waiting for Al Harris to get on the field; Harris is questionable for this week’s game.
The offense has been riddled with injuries, too. Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley are lost for the year. Aaron Rodgers had a concussion against Washington a few weeks back. The offensive line has been a little dinged up. This has all added up to the Packers underperforming this year. They’ve lost three games, though each loss has only been by a field goal.
The Packers haven’t lived up to the offseason hype, primarily due to injuries. The Jets can talk the talk, and now they’re starting to walk the walk. They’re coming off the bye so they’ve had a chance to rest and heal up any lingering injuries. The Jets are great off the bye and against the NFC North. Consider fading this public favorite and laying the points with the Jets at home.
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