San Antonio Spurs AT Atlanta Hawks
April 5, 2011 at 7 PM EST
Opening Line: San Ant -3
Current Line: San Ant -5.5
Opening total: 194
Current total: 194
Opening Moneyline: San Ant -175 / Atl +155
Current Moneyline: San Ant -230 / Atl +195
This game brings together a good team in the Hawks with a very good team in the Spurs. Atlanta isn’t a dominant team at home (24-15) and what little advantage they do have at home is negated by the fact that the Spurs have the 4th best in the league road record at 24-14. The oddsmakers, in accordance with this line of thinking, have set the line in favor of the visiting Spurs.
One thing that is worth considering, however, is that the Spurs just suffered their worst losing streak in 14 years by dropping six consecutive games before finally defeating Phoenix (minus Steve Nash) on Sunday. Moreover, they are 0-6 against the Eastern Conference teams which have already clinched a playoff berth, which the Hawks have.
The Hawks, again though are not doing that well either, as they have split their last 10 games 5-5. Atlanta is firmly entrenched in the 5 seed of the Eastern Conference and will in all liklihood be facing the Orlando Magic in the opening round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs.
Some betting trends:
San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games and the total has gone OVER in all 5 of their last 5 matchups. San Antonio is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games and they are 1-5 SU in their last 6 on the road. The total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 on the road and the total has also gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 against the Hawks. San Antonio is 8-1 SU in their last 9 games against the Hawks and they are 4-2 SU in their last 6 on the road against the Magic. The total has gone OVER in 12 of San Antonio’s lastl 16 games on the road against the Hawks.
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 games. Atlanta is 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games against the Spurs and the total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 5 against San Antonio. Atlanta is 1-8 SU in their last 9 against the Spurs and the total has gone OVER in 12 of Atlanta’s last 16 games against the Spurs. Atlanta is also 2-4 SU in their last 6 at home against the San Antonio Spurs.
Key Matchups:
Tim Duncan vs. Al Horford
Tim Duncan has been a perennial all star over the last decade and Horford is now a 2 time all star, hoping to achieve even a small measure of the success Duncan has enjoyed over his 14 year NBA career. This is the first year in Duncan’s career in which he has not averaged a double double (he is only averaging 9.0 rebounds per game), and it also marks the first year that Duncan has averaged less than 30 minutes per game, sitting at 28 minutes per game right now. His 11.1 shots also of course express a career low in attempts. At this point in their respective careers, Horford is the more effective player, scoring 15.6 points per game and grabbing 9.5 rebounds. Duncan is still a better shot blocker, but Horford stands closer to 6’8″ than 6’10”, while Duncan is nearly 7 feet tall. Horford will keep Duncan off the offensive glass where he averages 2.3 offensive rebounds per game, which will probably effectively eliminate at least two points that Duncan scores. Expect Horford to get the best of this matchup.
Manu Ginobili vs. Joe Johnson
Manu Ginobili, at nearly 34 years of age, is having his best season of his 9 year NBA career this year. His scoring is at the 2nd highest it has been over his career at 17.6 points per game, while he is also averaging 5 assists per night. While some could consider his 07-08 year to be superior, when he averaged 19.5 points per game and a league leading 2.7 steals per game, and that would be fair enough, but Ginobili has certainly competed with that year on the basis of the Spurs’ outstanding regular season success this year. Before falling apart recently, it appeared San Antonio would probably win at least 65 regular season games. A late season losing streak won’t zap the respect we have for Ginobili who has consistently been one of the league’s best sixth men and is an excellent scoring option no matter when he is on the court. Joe Johnson recently inked a max contract this summer and many questioned the Hawks when they did it. At the point Johnson’s contract expires, he will be 34 and well advanced into the twilight years of his career. Perhaps it wouldn’t be so bad if he hadn’t fallen off already. His scoring average is down 2.7 points per game from last year, though it can mostly be attributed to Johnson taking less shots and having a lower usage rate than he has in previous years. Johnson had a great January, scoring 25 or more 9 times, but since then he has cooled off. The Hawks are going to need Joe Johnson playing his absolute best to have any shot at knocking off the Magic in the playoffs, and even a valiant effort by Johnson may not be enough, as Orlando has had the Hawks number throughout the course of the past few seasons.
Tonight’s game is of more importance to the Spurs than the Hawks. Atlanta has no movement left to be done in the playoff picture while the Spurs are hanging on by the skin of their teeth to the top spot in the West. Having homecourt against the Lakers is almost vital, so expect Popovich to play his starters quality minutes, rather than resting them at the end of the regular season as he has in years’ past.
