Orlando Magic AT Golden State Warriors
Mar 11, 2011 at 10:30 PM EST
Opening Line: Orlando -5
Current Line: Orlando -5
Opening Total: 207.5
Current Total: 207
Opening Moneyline: Orl -200 / GS +170
Current Moneyline: Orl -220 / GS +185
Stan Van Gundy, ever the pessimist, was not pleased with Orlando’s latest effort against Sacramento, in a game which the Magic won. We played poorly. We didn’t put much into the game, got crushed on the glass. I’m not happy, but we got a win. We’ll take it and move on,” coach Stan Van Gundy said. “We’ve said (we’ll change) a lot. We say a lot of things.”
Moving forward, the Magic are seeking their fourth consecutive victory on the road, but Golden State is a respectable 19-13 at home. Despite that, their struggles on the road have been sufficient enough to remove them from the playoff race, as they currently sit 7 games behind 8th seeded Memphis. With only 18 games left in the season, it would take a remarkable run by Golden State, as well as collapses from Houston, Utah, Phoenix, and Memphis, so their chances are, indeed, very remote.
Some betting trends:
Orlando is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Magic’s last 7 games. Orlando is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games and they are 4-1 SU in their last 5 on the road. Orlando is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games against the Warriors and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Magic’s last 6 games against the Warriors. The total has gone OVER in 13 of the last 17 road games against Golden State and Orlando is 5-1 SU In their last 6 games on the road against the warriors.
Golden State is 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games and the total has gone UNDER in 13 of their last 18 games. Golden State is 2-7 SU in their last 9 games and they are 6-3 SU In their last 9 games at home. Golden State is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games at home and the total has gone OVER in 14 of their last 21 at home. Golden State is 0-5 SU in their last 5 against the Magic and they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against Orlando. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State’s last 6 games against Orlando and the total has gone OVER in 13 of their last 17 games against the Magic. Golden State is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games at home against the Magic and they are 1-5 ATS in those games.
Key Matchups:
Jason Richardson & J.J. Redick vs. Monta Ellis
Ellis is having yet another terrific year in terms of his offensive production. Averaging 24.8 points per game and 5.3 assists, he should be a terrific challenge for Richardson. Richardon is a good defender though, and Ellis’ career average against the Magic is only 16.4 points per game, nearly 3 points below his career avearge.
Because Ellis is a slasher and good shooter, it will require Dwight Howard to step up and challenge Ellis on his penetration. The result may be foul trouble for Dwight, which would spell certain doom for the Magic as they have no capable backup behind Howard.
Richardson is the only Magic player other than Dwight Howard to average more than 14 a game and he’s storking it from distance (39.1% from three). He seems to be acclimating himself well to Orlando’s offense since the trade that brought him over, but it is highly unlikely that he returns to the Magic next season. Richardson is a free agent at the end of the year and the Magic are deep in the luxury tax and simply can’t afford to sign Richardson to a new contract. Redick will step up and become the team’s next starter and he appears to be ready for the task. After 5 seasons of grooming, Redick should be able to step in and be a capable starter. His defense has improved leaps and bounds since entering the NBA and his offense remains strong. This is the first year of his 5 year career that he is averaging double figures in points.
Brandon Bass / Ryan Anderson / Dwight Howard vs. Ekpe Udoh / Andris Biedrins / David Lee
The Magic clearly own the advantage here, if not only because of Dwight Howard’s dominance. Both Udoh and Biedrins are too thin and frail to matchup well against Howard and will be punished all night. Bass and Anderson, in particular Anderson, have been playing excellent ball. Anderson’s numbers over the last 10 games rank him among the elite power forwards and Bass has been steady all year. Udoh is an inexpierenced rookie and the only real threat on the Golden State frontline is David Lee. Lee has been having a bit of a down year compared to his all star season of last year but is still a threat to have a big game at any point. Dwight Howard should be able to keep Lee under control with his help side defense, but that will leave Ellis. However, for all this strength in the Warriors’ offensive attack, they are equally bad on defense where they give up 105.6 points per game
