Orlando Magic AT Dallas Mavericks
January 8th, 2011 at 8:30 PM EST
Opening Line: Orlando -5
Current Line: Orlando -5.5
Opening Total: 187
Current Total: 189
Opening Moneyline: Orlando -200 / Dallas +170
Current Moneyline: Orlando -240 / Dallas +195
Tonight’s game brings together the red hot Magic, who are tied for the longest current winning streak in the league with the Miami Heat at 8 straight games, and the struggling Dallas Mavericks, who are playing without Dirk Nowitzki and they also lost key starter Caron Butler for the year. If Orlando wins tonight’s matchup, it will match the longest winning streak in the team’s history and the scary thing is the team has only been together in its current form for a couple weeks; they are only going to get better.
The Magic have scored 106.5 per game in their last 8 contests, but are playing on the second night of a back to back tonight, having disposed of Houston by 15 points last night, covering the spread set by Vegas oddsmakers. Hedo Turkoglu has returned to form as he was in Orlando during his first stint with the team and has improved the offensive flow and is running a great 3-5 pick and roll with Magic center Dwight Howard.
“I think the trades have made us better, there’s no doubt in my mind,” coach Stan Van Gundy said. “I thought that we’ve come together offensively quicker than I thought we would have, but we still need to work on our defense.”
Dallas will certainly have their work cut out for them, as they are missing two of their top 3 scorers. They ordinarily average 97.8 points per game, but without Dirk and Butler they will need scoring from their role players to cover tonight’s spread.
Some betting trends:
Orlando has won 8 of their past 10 games and are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games. They are 2-7 for their last 9 against the Mavericks and 2-4 ATS in their last 6 against Dallas. The total has gone OVER in 9 of their past 12 against Dallas. The total has gone OVER In 5 of their last 6 on the road in Dallas and they have lost 10 of their last 12 on the road in Dallas.
The Total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas’ last 5 games and they are 2-4 over their past 6 games. They are 19-5 over their last 24 games and the total has gone OVER In 7 of their last 10 at home. They are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Key matchups:
Dwight Howard vs Tyson Chandler
Chandler is the consummate role player and a good defender, but he is a bit too thin to body up with Howard, so you can expect Dwight to have his way pushing Chandler around and getting good position in the post. Last game against the Mavs, a 6 point loss at the Amway Center, Dwight Howard had 26 points and 23 rebounds. Dallas would be wise to play Brendan Haywood more than usual tonight as he has had decent success with Howard in the past. Haywood has the bulk to body up with Howard and is a better player than Chandler in the eyes of many, anyway.
Jameer Nelson vs Jason Kidd
Kidd is only getting older, but he continues to find a way to play good basketball. He’s still averaging over 8 assists a game but his three point percentage is down to 33%, significantly lower than the 40+% he shot the previous two seasons. He’ll have a size advantage against Nelson, but Jameer should be able to penetrate well against Kidd whose lateral foot speed is lacking now.
Tonight’s game should be in Orlando’s favor given their recent play and Dallas’ struggles. The only reason NBA oddsmakers have set the line so close is because it’s the second leg of a back to back for the Magic and the Mavs are at home.
