Golden State Warriors AT San Antonio Spurs
Wenesday, December 8th, 2010 8:35 EST
Opening Line: San Antonio -11
Current Line: San Antonio -10.5
Total: 214
Moneyline: Undefined
Golden State, following a close loss to Dallas by 5, enters tonight with a four game losing streak. After starting the season 4-1, they since have gone 4-12 and are 3 games behind Phoenix for the 8th seed in the Western Conference. They have won only one of their past ten games.
San Antonio, conversely, has been on fire and riding a two game winning streak are 8-2 over their last ten games and are 17-3 overally. Further, San Antonio is 9-2 at home, while Golden State is 3-9 on the road. They are coming off two home wins against New Orleans and Minnesota, and the New Orleans game was a 16 point blowout Spurs win.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the last 7 meetings between the two teams. Golden State has lost their last 5 games in San Antonio and are 1-6 ATS when playing in San Antonio over their last 7 there. Further, the total has gone OVER in 6 of the last 8 meetings in San Antonio. The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Antonio’s last 9 games.
San Antonio is not only winning, but winning in decisive fashion. They are averaging 106.7 points a game and only giving up 97.8 points a game, for a 9.0 point differential. Golden State, as you would expect, has a negative point differential of -5.1, as they are scoring 101.7, but give up 106.8
Some key matchups for tonight’s game:
David Lee vs Tim Duncan
Duncan is having the worst year of his 14 year NBA career. His scoring is down to 14 points per game and it has decreased every year of the last four seasons. He is also averaging less than 30 minutes a contest for the first time in his career, as Popovich tends to rest his starters to keep them fresh for the playoffs. Lee is also having a bit of a down year, with his scoring average at 15 per game, 5.3 points less per game than last season in New York. His rebounding is also down, however, as he is at 9.9 boards a game, his first time under 10 boards since 07-08. In two of the last three games, though, Lee has scored 20 points or more, and last game went for 20 pts and 8 rebs. Expect Lee and Duncan to neutralize one another in tonight’s game, with the possibility that Duncan outscores Lee due to his superior defense. Counteracting Duncan’s shot blocking and rugged interior defense, however, is the fact that Lee has superior footspeed and could beat Duncan down the court in the run and gun offense that the Warriors employ.
Monta Ellis vs Manu Ginobili
Though now 33, Ginobili is sporting the highest scoring average he has ever had in his nine year NBA career, averaging 20.6 points per game, his first season with 20+. Prior to the last three games, he had a streak in which he scored 23 or more for five consecutive games. Last game for the Spurs was a blowout against Minnesota, so Manu got a lot of rest and only played 22 minutes, scoring only 8 points. Ellis, meanwhile, is keeping up his high scoring ways and averaging 24.8 points per game while shooting a great field goal percentage given his volume of shots (48.3% on 19 attempts a game). Last game against San Antonio, however, Ellis struggled, hitting just 6 of 16 shots and scoring but 12. Two games ago, against Phoenix, Ellis played the entire game and scored 38 points, so he has the endurance to play with little to no rest. Expect Ginobili to try to use this to his advantage and he will go hard at Ellis, attempting to wear him out and force silly fouls.
This game, while not predicted to be close, should be an exciting one. Ellis and Ginobili will provide plenty of fire works and if Ellis can catch fire, look for Golden State to cover the spread.
