Boston Celtics AT Sacramento Kings
Feb 2, 2011 at 10 PM EST
Opening Line: Boston -6.5
Current Line: Boston -7
Opening Total: 192.5
Current Total: 191
Opening Moneyline: Bos -275 / Sac +235
Current Moneyline: Bos -295 / Sac +235
Boston is coming off one of their worst shooting performances of the year, a game which they scored only 71 points against the up-tempo defense-less Suns. Pierce (14 points) and Garnett (18 points) were the only two Celtics to score double figures, and Pierce, despite his 14 points shot 33% from the floor himself, slightly under the 34.2% shot by the team. Phoenix, winners of that game, had 5 players in double figures, led by Marcin Gortat off the bench with 19 points and 17 rebounds. It was a humbling effort for the Celtics, but not one which they wouldn’t draw motivation from as they came out two nights later to beat the defending champion Lakers by 13 points, scoring what they should have put up against Phoenix against a much better defensive team in a 109-96 win. In that game against the Lakers, 6 Boston players scored in double figures and Paul Pierce had 32 on 11 of 18 shooting. What a difference a game makes.
The Celts will look to build on that momentum against a Sacramento team that gives up 101.9 points per game. Boston already shoots a league high 50.9% from the floor, tonight against the Kings they could easily exceed that, and NBA oddsmakers have set the line 6.5 points in Boston’s favor to open, and it has since shifted to 7 points in their favor.
Some betting trends:
Boston is 8-2 SU in their last 10 games and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 6 on the road. They are 10-5 SU in their last 15 games on the road and 5-0 SU in their last 5 against Sacramento. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 7 games against Sacramento and it has gone OVER In 11 of their last 16 on the road against the Kings. Boston is 3-11 SU in their last 14 road games in Sacramento and 3-6 ATS in their last 9 road games against the Kings.
Sacramento is 7-18 SU in their last 25 games and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 7 games. Sacramento is 6-17 SU in their last 23 games at home and 8-16-1 ATS in their last 25 at home. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 7 games against Boston and they are 0-6 SU In their last 5 games playing Boston. Sacramento is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 against the Celtics and 11-3 SU in their last 14 against Boston. The total has gone OVER in 11 of the last 16 home games against the Celtics.
Key Matchups:
Ray Allen vs. Tyreke Evans
Evans is younger, more athletic, and more explosive than Ray Allen, but that doesn’t really mean much of anything. Allen finds a way to defend players that are more explosive than him on a nightly basis and part of his key is wearing them out on the offensive end of the court. Chasing Ray Allen around the myriad of screens that the Celtics set can tire even the best defenders and Evans will be no exception. While Evans will be no easy match defensively for Allen, he should be able to keep Evans from having a very big night, perhaps holding him to his season average. Allen, meanwhile, will get his.
Kendrick Perkins vs. DeMarcus Cousins
Cousins found a way to score 27 points and grab 11 rebounds against one of the best frontlines in the league in the Lakers, so it’s not a stretch that he could do the same to the Boston bigs. He’s that good and he’s getting better. Perkins is notoriously one of the league’s best post defenders, though, so Cousins won’t get a lot of easy looks. If Perkins can force him out of his comfort zone on the block, Cousins could be in trouble. He’s not experienced enough passing out of double teams and against premier defenders he often struggles.
Tonight’s game should be closer than one would expect from teams with records on the opposite ends of the success spectrum. The Kings have been good at home against the Celtics and Boston may take this one for granted after defeating the Lakers two nights ago.
