Boston Celtics AT Indiana Pacers
Mar 28, 2011 at 7 PM EST
Opening Line: Boston -3
Current Line: Boston -2
Opening Total: 189
Current Total: 187.5
Opening Moneyline: Bos -145 / Ind +125
Current Moneyline: Bos -135 / Ind +115
At first glance the line on this one seems a bit close, and a bit odd, for two teams with such disparate records. The reason, of course, is that the Celtics played a nailbiter last night against the Minnesota Timberwolves and a veteran team like Boston has more trouble bouncing back and staying fresh in the second night of a back to back than a younger team might. Fortunately, for the Celtics, a victory tonight is hardly a necessity as they just clinched another Atlantic Division Title.
The game for the Pacers, however, is of much more dire importance with regard to the Pacers’ chances of making the playoffs. They currently sit just one game ahead of the Charlotte Bobcats for the 8th and final spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs, an honor that will match the victor up against the red hot Chicago Bulls, in all likelihood. Pacers All-Star Danny Granger understands the importance and pressing need for a victory and is unhappy with the way the Pacers have squandered games recently.
“We just gave away two games in the last two nights to two teams that wanted it more, and just let other teams right back in the hunt,” said Granger. “We have to step it up and if we don’t we will be out of the playoffs.”
Some betting trends:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston’s last 5 and they are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games. The total has also gone UNDER in all 5 of the Celtics’ last 5 road games and they are 6-3 SU in their last 9 on the road. Boston is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 on the road and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 against the Pacers. Boston is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games against Indy and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 6 games on the road against the Pacers. Boston is 4-2 SU in their last 6 road games against the Pacers.
Indiana is 5-10 SU in their last 15 games and they are 3-6 ATS In their last 9 at home. The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Pacers’ last 6 games at home and they are 0-5 SU in their last 5 against Boston. Indiana is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the Celtics and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of the last 5 meetings with the Celtics. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana’s last 6 games at home against the Celtics and Indiana is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games at home against Boston. Indiana is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 at home against the Celtics.
Key Matchups:
Danny Granger vs. Paul Pierce
Pierce has scored 20, 18, and 21 in his three meetings with the Pacers and Danny Granger this year, which more or less falls in line with his season average. Granger has scored 15, 15, and 19 against the Celtics, which is well below his season average of 20.6. Both players are fair defenders, but are also the de facto number one options of their respective teams so they will wear each other down defensively, undoubtedly contributing to their pedestrian totals against one another. Granger is known and respected as a very good team defender, but is not as strong in one on one coverage and he will have to avoid picking up “silly” fouls against Pierce, though Granger is usually adept at doing so (4 fouls last game, 2 and 2 in the two before). Granger’s numbers are down, but it is entirely due to a better supporting cast. He isn’t being forced to take as many shots, or as many bad shots late in the clock, as in years’ past. Expect this matchup to be more or less a wash.
Darren Collison vs. Rajon Rondo
Speed and lightning in a bottle for both these players is about right. Collison and Rondo both rank among the quickest players in the league and will be darting around one another all night for dribble penetration. Though Collison has been something of a mild disappointment for the Pacers, he is still only in his second season as a pro and will undoubedly form a central part of the nucleus of the Pacers moving forward. He has played pitifully in the last three games, however, totalling only 20 pionts and 13 assists in the three games combined.
Rondo is leading the league in assists and has come into his own as an All-Star and now is probably the Celtics’ best player, all around.
Tonight’s game could easily be won by the Pacers if they come out focused and prepared. Boston is going to be tired and will probably rely more heavily on their reserves. Moreover, given the nature of this game with respect to the teams’ respective standings and positions, Indiana has a lot more to lose and gain than Boston in this game and will probably play harder than the Celtics. Whether or not that is enough to overcome their inferior talent remains to be seen.
