Miami Heat AT Charlotte Bobcats
Feb 4, 2011 at 7 PM EST
Opening Line: Miami -6
Current Line: Miami -5.5
Opening Total: 188
Current Total: 190
Opening Moneyline: Mia -200 / Cha +185
Current Moneyline: Mia -245 / Cha +195
The Bobcats are hoping they can build on the momentum of their 4-2 road trip with a victory over Miami at home tonight. Stephen Jackson, who has averaged 25.3 points over his last six games, takes just that approach. “It’s good to come back 4-2 knowing the tough games we have ahead of us, Hopefully we can carry it over.”
It won’t be easy. In their previous two games against the Heat this year, they lost by an average of 11.0 points and Miami is coming off an impressive victory of their own against the Magic, a 104-100 thriller in which LeBron had his 9th 50+ point game of his career.
“We weren’t that good in November. I think the numbers spoke for it. We had a lot of talent, but it takes time for a team to come together. I think a couple months…” said LeBron James, on the fact that the Heat are just now beginning to play like the team many feared and anticipated they would be.
Some betting trends:
Miami is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games and 2-4 SU in their last 6 road games. Miami is 15-4 SU in their last 19 road games and the total has gone UNDER in all 5 of the last 5 against Charlotte. Miami is 6-3 SU in their last 9 against the Bobctats and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 against them. Miami is 4-8-1 ATS in their last 13 games on the road in Charlotte. The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami’s last 8 games on the road in Charlotte and Miami is 2-6 SU in their last 8 games on the road in Charlotte.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Charlotte’s last 6 games and they are 4-2 SU in those games. They are 4-2 SU in their last 6 home games and the total has gone UNDER in 12 of their last 17 games at home. The total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 6 games at home. Charlotte is 3-6 SU in their last 9 games against the Heat. They are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 against Miami. The total has gone UNDER In 5 of the last 5 meetings with the Heat and the total has gone UNDER in 7 of their last 8 home games against the Heat. The Bobcats are 6-2 SU in their last 8 home games against the Heat.
Key Matchups:
Dwyane Wade vs. Stephen Jackson
While Wade is clearly the better player in this matchup, don’t underestimate Jackson. He recently recorded his season high of 39 points against Detroit in a 10 point Bobcat victory. He’s a great scorer and is able to facilitate for his teammates very well, and to top it off he is 3 inches taller than Wade. Wade is much quicker however and will find ways to beat Jackson off the dribble to get into the Bobcats’ weak interior. It isn’t a good sign when the only thing between Wade and the basket is Boris Diaw and Kwame Brown. I expect both Wade and Jackson to have big scoring nights, actually, though Wade will likely outscore him in this matchup.
LeBron James vs. Gerald Wallace
Wallace is one of the few people in the league that has a legitimate chance of slowing down James, but after LeBron’s 51 point explosion, I wouldn’t be betting that Wallace actually does slow down James. James has such a huge strength advantage against Wallace (and indeed against most of the forwards in the league) that he will be able to over power Wallace on trips to the basket, and when he isn’t doing that, Wallace will find it difficult to contest LeBron’s almost unstoppable fade away.
Tonight’s game probably will not be as close as NBA oddsmakers have set the line. Miami is a superior team to the Bobcats and though the Cats have some decent matchups, they can’t slow down the Heat. Also interesting is the total, which is obviously predicated upon Charlotte’s season average statistics, since they have since picked up the pace following the hiring of Paul Silas. A bet on the ‘over’ seems like a good one.
