Indiana Pacers AT Atlanta Hawks
January 8th, 2011 at 7:00 PM EST
Opening Line: Atlanta -6.5
Current Line: Atlanta -7
Opening Total: 192
Current Total: 192
Opening Moneyline: Atlanta -300 / Indy +250
Current Moneyline: Atlanta -340 / Indy +270
The Hawks have recently got their act together since Joe Johnson returned from injury. Johnson has been playing well (20.5 ppg since December 17th and 28.7 over the last 3 games) and the Hawks have won 4 straight. They should have a legitimate chance to win their 5th straight according to NBA oddsmakers who have set the opening line 6.5 points in Atlanta’s favor.
Wednesday night the Hawks took care of business against the Jazz, winning by a 23 point margin and easily covering the spread of course. Joe Johnson hit five threes and Atlanta as a team went 14 of 25 from behind the arc that night.
“Joe was on fire tonight,” Josh Smith said, “Every 3 was definitely big because it was a momentum killer.”
If Joe Johnson can play that way tonight, they’ll have no problem covering the spread against the Pacers, who have been mediocre as they have been for the last 20 years, once again.
Some betting trends:
Indiana has lost 5 of their last 6 games and have lost their last 5 on the road. They are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 5 on the road. They have dropped their last 5 to the Hawks and are 1-6 over their last 7 in Atlanta. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 6 games on the road at the Phillips Arena. They have also dropped their last 5 road games there.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta’s past 5 games and they are 5-1 over their last 6 games. They are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 at home and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 5 at home.
Premier Matchup:
Danny Granger vs. Josh Smith
I know Granger is a small forward and Josh Smith is a power forward, but you can’t honestly expect Hansbrough to cover Josh Smith, nor can you expect Granger to be covered by anyone other than Atlanta’s best defender. Moreover, Granger played power forward a couple games ago before Hansbrough stepped back into the starting lineup. Josh Smith has the length and shot blocking ability to give Granger a lot of problems, but Granger can still light it up from outside and will have to shoot well from outside to have a good game, because taking Smith to the basket won’t prove to be a profitable move for Granger. Smith has improved his outside shot and is scoring well this year, just over his career average with 15.8 points a night. But his main contribution is on defense where he is able to cover both forwards lots and do a great job at it. He’s getting 1.4 steals a game and 2.0 blocks a game, as evidence of his hard work on that end of the court. Now if only we could convince him to enter the dunk contest against Blake Griffin to give the rookie a bit of a challenge…
The Hawks have absolutely owned the Pacers and this has proven to be one of the hot bets for tonight, as indicated by the spread shifting further in Atlanta’s favor since betting opened. The total is also a hot pick to go under, as is indicated by the betting trends listed above.
