Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Clippers
December 29th, 2010 at 10:35 PM EST
Opening Line: Utah -2
Current LIne: Utah -2
Opening Total: 196
Current Total: 194.5
Opening Moneyline: Utah -130 / LAC +110
Current Moneyline: Utah -130 / LAC +110
The Clippers have begun to make the ascent to respectability. Well, sort of. While they aren’t playing like a contender or anything, they have managed to win 5 of their last 10 and have a 2 game winning streak going into tonight’s game. They’re not particulary good at home, or anywhere for that matter, but they do have a semi respectable 7-11 home record and Blake Griffin is playing as well as any rookie in the last 5 years at least. Even if the Clippers aren’t winning a lot of games, he’s at least helped keep butts in seats with a number of jaw dropping dunks and 20-10 games. Between Griffin and third year guard Eric Gordon, the Clippers appear to have a bright future (but we won’t get ahead of ourselves, who knows if they even resign when the time comes).
Utah has quietly assembled a good team and sports a 21-10 record. They have won 6 of their past 10 and Millsap has been a very pleasant surprise in leiu of losing Carlos Boozer to free agency and riding out the injury of starting center (though he probably won’t be anymore) Mehmet Okur. Despite their rather good record, they still only have a +3.1 point differential.
The Clippers actually have been in a number of close games and their differential of -3.6 attests to that. They simply don’t have the veteran leadership necessary to close out games or hold onto big leads. Baron Davis has all but crossed the line to being washed up and Eric Bledsoe is a couple years away from being ready to handle the reigns on a day to day basis.
Some betting trends:
The Total has gone UNDER in 5 of Utah’s past 6. They are 13-5 over their past 18 games and the total has gone OVER In 13 of their past 19 road games. They have also won 9 of their past 11 on the road. The total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 6 against the Clippers and 7 of the last 10 in L.A.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the last 7 Clipper games and the Clips have won 5 of their past 6 games. They are 4-1-1 ATS in those games and the total has gone UNDER In 7 of their last 8 home games. They have won only 2 of their past 6 at home and have lost 9 of their last 10 against Utah at home.
Some of the key matchups for tonight’s game:
Paul Millsap vs. Blake Griffin
This is definitely the marquee matchup for tonight’s game. Millsap is one of the best three players on the Jazz (along with their best player Deron Williams and their best big man Al Jefferson) and Blake Griffin is the crowning jewel of the Clipper empire. Millsap is undersized but notoriously a good defender with an ability to block a few shots, but that isn’t enough against someone like Blake Griffin. Griffin won’t have much of a problem with Millsap on offense, but if he leaves him open to play help side defense, Millsap has the mid range jumper to punish him for it. Last game against the Clippers, Millsap had an efficent 7 of 11 from the floor for 15 points, but managed just two rebounds. Griffin went bonkers for 35 points and 14 boards, but the Clippers still lost. Griffin’s raging atleticism gives the very best defenders problems and his length and explosiveness make him a very difficult cover for Millsap. Expect the Clippers to go to Blake Griffin even more than they do most nights as there is very little Millsap can do to cover him.
Deron Williams vs. Baron Davis & Eric Bledsoe
Deron Williams is simply too good for Baron Davis at this point in Davis’ career. He no longer has the speed to keep up with someone even as slow-a-foot as Deron Williams, and his lateral movement isn’t anywhere near good enough to react to Deron Williams’ crossovers and hesitation moves. Last game, Deron Williams had 26 points and 9 assists, for a slightly better than his average game. Baron Davis did not play in that game, but he wouldn’t have made a difference if he did. Eric Bledsoe is a better defender and has a decent shot of staying in front of Williams and will likely get his fair share of the minutes (he played 18 last game, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him play 24 tonight). Either way, Deron Williams will have a big game and it should be enough to help carry Utah to the top. While the spread is rather precarious, a moneyline bet here would be a low risk – good payout considering the Clippers have a very slim shot at winning this game, and NBA Oddsmakers have indeed set the spread slightly in Utah’s favor.
