San Antonio Spurs AT Sacramento Kings
Feb 4, 2011 at 10 PM EST
Opening Line: SA -5.5
Current Line: SA -4.5
Opening Total: 198
Current Total: 196.5
Opening Moneyline: SA -180 / Sac +168
Current Moneyline: SA -215 / Sac +175
The Spurs won their game last night against the Lakers in dramatic fashion. Down by one they went to their future Hall Of Fame forward Tim Duncan, and while Duncan didn’t deliver, McDyess did, tipping in the game winning basket as time expired. “I was in the right place at the right time, and it bounced right to me,” said McDyess. “I haven’t had too many (buzzer-beaters). I can probably count them on one hand, but this is a big one.”
The Spurs are hoping they won’t need a buzzer beater to beat the lowly Kings. Sacramento has dropped their last 9 games to the Spurs and even at home catching the Spurs on the second leg of a back to back, they are still underdogs according to NBA oddsmakers. If they do lose, it probably won’t be because of a lack of good play from rookie DeMarcus Cousins, who is averaging 24 points per game on 52.7% shooting over the last three Kings games.
Some betting trends:
San Antonio is 12-2 SU in their last 14 games and 6-2 SU in their last 8 road games. They are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games against Sacramento and 5-0 SU in their last 5 road games against the Kings. San Antonio is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games against the Kings. The total has gone UNDER in 15 of their last 23 games against Sacramento.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Sacramento’s last 5 games and Sacramento is 7-18 SU in their last 25 games. They are 6-18 SU in their last 24 home games and 0-5 SU in their last 5 against San Antonio. Sacramento is 2-4-1 ATS in their last 7 against San Antonio. Sacramento is 0-5 SU in their last 5 home games against the Spurs.
Key Matchups:
DeJuan Blair vs. DeMarcus Cousins
Blair is a midget compared to Cousins at a true 6’6″ while Cousins is nearly 7 feet tall. Cousins will bully Blair around until Popovich is forced to put McDyess or Duncan on him. Blair is a solid rebounder but often struggles to cover taller players. Cousins has been playing well against even the good teams, scoring 20+ against both the Lakers and the Celtics, so tonight shouldn’t be any different. Duncan could present a challenge to him, but no one else on the Spurs is capable of covering him.
Manu Ginobili vs. Tyreke Evans
Ginobili got elected to his second all star game of his career by the coaches as it was announced Thursday. Evans, if he had built on the momentum of last year, would have been in a position to make his first all star appearance as well, but Evans has regressed from last season, having what is often referred to as the “sophomore slump.” His field goal percentage is down to 40.7, over 5% lower than it was last year. He’s still playing big minutes (37 a game) and getting up a lot of shots, he’s just not hitting them. Ginobili is having the best year of his 9 year NBA career, posting career highs in points, assists, and steals. It’s partly due to him playing 3 minutes more per game than his career average, as he is no longer the 6th man, but now is a full time starter. Evans will have his hands full with Ginobili who is tricky for most defenders. Evans has a big strength advantage against Ginobili, but Ginobili will be able to keep Evans in front of him on defense to keep that advantage minimized.
This one might be close. It is the second night of a back to back and teams historically struggle in that situation. However, with San Antonio being a 41-8 team against a 12-34 team, you have to figure skill wins out in this situation.
