Tip off: 7 PM EST
Spread: ORL -4.5
Total: 183.5
M/L: ORL -195, CHA +165
The Magic might not have Dwight Howard for long, but they are still getting their money’s worth while they do have him. Last night, Dwight Howard hauled down 24 boards in addition to scoring 16 points. 6 of his 24 rebounds were offensive, and he drew a number of loose ball fouls in what would have been more offensive boards. Overall, he showed that a player can impact a game significantly just by controlling the glass.
So far for the Bobcats, ilt has been the surprsing Gerald Henderson leading the way offensively. But perhaps it shouldn’t be such a surprise. As I pointed out in the prop betting, the line was set at o/u 12 pts for Henderson and he scored 12 or more in 14 of the final 16 Bobcats games. I have never understood things like that, I went with the over, and it clearly went over with Henderson scoring 21 on 10 of 19 shooting. Outside of Henderson, D.J. Augustin, Kemba Walker, and Boris Diaw are all averaging double figures, while Maggette is clearly struggling with only 9.0 points per game, despite being expected to shoulder most of the load offensively.
Orlando Magic Betting Trends:
The total has gone UNDER In 7 of the Magic’s last 8 games and they are 3-6 ATS in the last 9 games, while they are also 1-4 SU in their last 5 on the road. The Magic are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and the total has gone UNDER in all 5 of their last 5 on the road. It has also gone UNDER In 5 of the last 7 against the Bobcats, while Orlando is 5-0 SU in their last 5 against the Bobcats. The Magic are 5-0 SU in their last 5 road games in Charlotte, as well, and the total has gone UNDER In 7 of the Magic’s last 10 games on the road against the Bobcats.
Charlotte Bobcats Betting Trends:
Charlotte is 3-7 SU in their last 10 games and the total has gone OVER in 5 of the Bobcats’ last 7 games. It has also gone OVER in 16 of their last 22 at home, and they are 2-4 SU in their last 6 at home. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Bobcats’ last 7 games against the Magic and they are 0-5 SU in their last 5 against the Magic. The Bobcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against the Magic and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 at home against Orlando. The total has gone UNDER in 7 of the Bobcats’ last 10 games at home against the Magic and they are 0-5 SU in their last 5 at home vs. the Magic.
Key Matchups:
D.J. White vs. Dwight Howard
OK, you’ve got to be kidding me. They are really going to counter Dwight Howard with D.J. White? Might we see more of work horse DeSagana Diop? I would say so. Diop has the size to push Howard off the block, White is just a leaping phenom. While White may be able to jump with Howard, he is out muscled nearly every play. While I am hardly suggesting Diop will shut Howard down, he is a skilled shot blocker who could at least potentially give Dwight a few tough shots, which is more than White could hope to do at only 6’9″ 235 lbs.
D.J. Augustin / Kemba Walker / Gerald Henderson vs. Jameer Nelson / Jason Richardson / J.J. Redick
The battle in the backcourt should be a good one. Both teams have strong three guard rotations, and neither will be hurting as usual due to being overmatched size wise in the backcourt, since both teams feature diminutive “waterbug” point guards in Nelson and Augustin. Walker and Redick were both huge scorers in college who should transition to being great pros. Redick already has, of course, while Walker promises to be a big scorer for many years to come. But perhaps Gerald Henderson has been the real surprise. The #12 pick in the 2009 draft has put up big numbers and is attempting 16.5 shots a game in 40 minutes a night. While it’s not that much of a surprise, as I have already said, he should give Jason Richardson all he can handle on defense, though Richardson is a good defender. Look for the backcourts to score a lot in this one, since both are collectively better offensively than defensively.
If you feel like this analysis has given you some insight as a bettor, you may feel inclined to back up a bet at Bookmaker, where they offer a 5% return on lost bets. Also check out our paid pick packages for the 2011-2012 season, as we murder the books once again!
