The game started as a pick, but heavy public betting on the Vandals has pushed the line to Idaho by 1 ½ points. The squares are backing the Vandals at a staggering 97%. But as is often the case, the public is jumping on the wrong bandwagon. This situation supports the Bulldogs, and don’t let this small conference game fly under your radar.
The technical numbers are decidedly in favor of Louisiana Tech. Over the past three seasons against the spread, the Bulldogs are 10-2 at home, 9-1 against teams with a winning record, 11-6 against conference opponents, and 9-10 as an underdog. On the other side of the field, Idaho has been ok against the spread, but not as good as La Tech in this situation. Over the last three years, the Vandals are 7-8 ats on the road, 3-6 when playing a team with a losing record, 6-9 against conference opponents, 4-3 as a favorite, and 1-1 coming off the bye. Since 1992, Idaho is 4-10 after a bye week.
Louisiana Tech is just starting to get rolling. They handled a decent Utah State team that was coming off a sound beating of BYU. The Bulldogs won 24-6, holding the Aggies to less than 200 total yards of offense. At the same time, La Tech racked up 278 rushing yards en route to a 427 total yard effort.
The Bulldogs have a solid offensive line that helps pave the way. Four starters are back from last year, and that becomes especially important in conference play. The defense has a good group of linebackers and the secondary has a lot of experience. Even with a 2-4 record, this isn’t a bad football team. They’ve lost to Texas A&M and Hawaii on the road, and Navy and Southern Miss at home – not one bad loss. And against Southern Miss, a top-half Conference USA team, the Bulldogs lost a heartbreaker, 13-12.
Idaho goes as Nathan Enderle goes. The senior signal caller will be drafted by some team come this April. He has good size and a good arm; he’s accurate, though not too mobile. But after Enderle, there isn’t much. Only a fraction of the offense is back from last year. The Vandals brought back just one offensive lineman, and had to replace their starting running back and top receiver. Ouch! But the defense has 10 starters back from last year’s team, so not all is lost for Idaho.
The best reason to side with La Tech in this match-up is the situational numbers. But also consider how these two teams have played each other in the past two seasons. While Idaho snuck out a 1 point win last year, the year before in Ruston, Louisiana, the Bulldogs dismantled the Vandals, 46-14. In those two games combined, La Tech has rushed for a total of 586 yards, which is amazing. Also, the Bulldogs were +3 in turnovers in each game. With the Bulldogs having the revenge factor and home field advantage, along with their recent success in turnovers and the rushing game, La Tech feels like a good play.
The public is killing the Vandals, which should grab your attention. Pay attention to the games bet heavily by the squares and see how well they do. Fading the public favorite is often times a wise move. Do so in this match-up. Back the Bulldogs in this under the radar WAC battle.
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