San Diego opened as an 8 ½ point home favorite over the Jags. The squares have played the Chargers pretty strong for most of the week, but sharp money has brought the NFL lines down to 7 points at most sites with a couple checking in at 7 ½. The wiseguys had a great read on the Texans last week, and following them again seems like a solid play.
The Jags are coming off a good game against Denver, beating the Broncos 24-17. Whenever David Garrard plays efficiently, the Jaguars usually win. That was the case last week as Garrard finished 16-21 for 170 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 turnovers. He looks to have some weapons to distribute the ball to, other than Maurice Jones-Drew who’s always dangerous out of the backfield. Mike Thomas hauled in 6 passes for 89 yards. Mercedes Lewis had 2 touchdown catches and Kassim Osgood had the other td. Additionally, Zach Miller is a second year tight end with a lot of talent who should find a great deal of success with Jacksonville.
Jacksonville was balanced, too, rushing for 134 yards as a team. MJD was just shy of the 100 yard mark, finishing with 98 yards. The defense played well enough, holding the Broncos to 3.6 yards per carry. Denver outgained Jacksonville by about 65 yards, but the Jags executed well. They did the little things well, which the Jags haven’t done often in recent years. They had no turnovers and only 5 penalties for 47 yards, while Denver had 2 turnovers and 7 penalties for 70 yards.
Unlike Jacksonville, San Diego did the little things wrong. The Chiefs had 3 big punt returns, one being Dexter McCluster’s 94 yard return for a touchdown. Jamaal Charles busted off a 56 yard run for a touchdown, and for the game the Chiefs averaged 5.2 yards per carry. There was only one turnover in the game by either team; Chargers’ rookie running back Ryan Matthews fumbled deep in San Diego territory, which led to the Chiefs second touchdown. McCluster’s exciting return was the last score for the Chiefs. San Diego ultimately outgained KC 389-197, but a few big plays and the Chargers porous rush defense led to their demise.
The Chargers have the feel of a team that will get better as the season progresses, but for now they have some major question marks. Can Ryan Matthews replace the productivity of LaDainian Tomlinson? Who is going to take the place of Vincent Jackson? Is the rush defense reason for concern? The Chargers have some wrinkles that need to be ironed out.
The Jags have a great chance to get a big, early season victory over a quality AFC opponent. Garrard and Maurice Jones-Drew are two dynamic players with the ability to gash the Chargers’ defense. That should open up some good play-fake opportunities. The Chargers offense got yards against the Chiefs, but they didn’t really have good rhythm. Philip Rivers was ok, but not overly sharp. Matthews had his moments, but the team just seemed to lack the punch it had with Tomlinson and Jackson. The wiseguys have brought the line down to 7, but if you can grab 7 ½ points that should be enough. And if you’re feeling lucky, consider putting the Jags on the moneyline.
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