The Buffalo Bills, on the other hand, had a forgettable 2010. After trudging through the first half of the season without a win, the Bills actually put together a respectable second half to the season. Replacing Trent Edwards with Ryan Fitzpatrick early in the season was the right move, and Buffalo looks to take another step forward this season.
The betting line opened at Kansas City -6 ½ and has been pretty steady so far, currently sitting anywhere between 6 and 7 points on the current NFL point spreads. There was some concern about Matt Cassel’s ribs, which were injured in the preseason finale against the Green Bay Packers. But Cassel has been practicing and all signs point to him playing this Sunday. Regardless, the Bills seem to have a decent amount of value here.
The Kansas City Chiefs have a solid set of offensive personnel, but they’re missing an important piece to the offense in Charlie Weis. The offensive coordinator took his talents to Gainesville, Florida where he is currently serving as the O-coordinator for the Florida Gators. Weis, the coordinator for the Patriots when they became a dynasty, is maybe the top O-coordinator out there. Like others before him (Mike Martz, for example), Weis has discovered and demonstrated that his true strengths lie in offensive preparation and scheming along with play-calling, rather than managing a team as head coach.
Weis shouldn’t be credited with all of the Chiefs’ success last year, but at the same time, he deserves more than just being mentioned. Kansas City led the NFL is rushing yards per game by using a well-coordinated attack of Jamaal Charles and the ageless Thomas Jones. Further, Matt Cassel had a breakout year, and so too did Dwayne Bowe and Tony Moeaki. Everyone knew Bowe had tremendous talent and unfortunately for KC, the recently injured Moeaki is out for the season. But it’ll be interesting to see how Cassel plays and the effectiveness of the rushing attack without Weis in the booth.
Believe it or not, the Bills have recently played the Chiefs quite well. Buffalo has won three of the last four meetings; their lone loss came last year in Kansas City on Halloween, 13-10 in overtime. Importantly, the Bills covered the spread. Don’t be surprised if Buffalo looks surprisingly comfortable in Arrowhead Stadium.
I expect Fitzpatrick to have a nice season. Edwards needed to go and Fitzpatrick actually put up some great numbers – 3,000 yards, 23 tds, and 15 picks in 13 games. And he’s smart. The former seventh round pick by St. Louis in 2005 comes straight from the hallowed halls of Harvard.
Beyond Fitzpatrick, Bills fans can be hopeful. Fred Jackson was serviceable at running back last year. The team needs more development out of CJ Spiller, however; 283 yards rushing for the season is not going to hack it in the NFL. On the outside, Buffalo let Lee Evans go but Steve Johnson is coming off a 1,000 yard/10 touchdown season. Additionally, the Bills picked up Brad Smith from the Jets, who should give Buffalo some offensive diversification.
The Bills defense needs to get better, especially against the run, and they’re hoping Shawne Merriman can help to fill that void. The defensive line upgraded by drafting Marcell Dareus out of Alabama. It’s worth noting that Charles ran for a season high against Buffalo last year – 177 yards – and the Chiefs had to sneak out a win in overtime. In other words, it’s possible that Kansas City will run all over Buffalo and still lose the spread, if not the game.
Without Weis or Moeaki, expect KC to struggle with a team they’ve had problems with before. Grab the points.
Maddux Sports has cleaned up in the preseason and nailed our first regular season pick on the Over in the NO/GB game on Thursday. We are ready to clean up once again in the NFL this Sunday with 5 big winners including a rare 20 unit NFL selection. You can get these football picks by visiting our winning NFL picks page of the website.
