The Ducks opened as 22 ½ point favorites, but sharps hit this line hard from the moment it was posted. The number is currently sitting at 26 ½, but don’t be surprised if this goes to 28 or more. The squares are also backing the Ducks, but when the line gets steamed over 4 points in the first two days after being posted, the wiseguys are the reason. They’re either trying to create a good middle (I hope not) or they’re genuinely expecting a big bounce-back effort from the boys in green in Eugene.
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There are a number of good reasons for liking Oregon in this week 2 matchup. For one, Oregon just played maybe the best team in the country last week, while Nevada had the week off and will open the season this Saturday. You hear it every year – the biggest improvement for a team comes between the first and second games of the season. Expect Oregon to demonstrate an impressive degree of growth after last week’s loss to LSU. Similarly, expect Nevada to learn a lot after getting stomped by Oregon this week.
Also keep in mind that LSU did not run Oregon out of the stadium last Saturday. In fairness, Oregon lost because of turnovers and penalties. The Ducks outgained LSU 335-273, but committed 12 penalties for 95 yards and gave the ball away four times; one of those turnovers – a fumbled punt – was returned for a touchdown. Granted, Oregon struggled offensively as much as I’ve seen in the past two seasons. LaMichael James was bottled up all night, although he did manage to find the endzone. Darren Thomas threw for almost 250 yards, but only 4.4 yards per attempt. Nevertheless, they still put up 30 points on one of the best defenses in the country in what looked like an off-night.
Oregon was better on defense than I expected. Yes, they gave up 43 points, but the Ducks’ offense and special teams should share the blame. Yes, they gave up 175 yards rushing, but only 3.6 per rush. They held LSU to under 100 yards passing, which is quite odd considering points against.
Regarding Nevada, they’re coming off the best season in school history. They beat Boise State, tied for the WAC title, and finished the season ranked #11. Not bad.
Here’s the bad news – Colin Kaepernick is gone. Kaepernick was the four year starter at Nevada who racked up over 14,000 total yards in his career; he’s currently on the 49ers’ roster. While it’s never good to lose a four year starter at quarterback, Nevada’s pistol offense makes the transition to a new quarterback even more difficult. If you need evidence of how important a quarterback is to the pistol, see the disaster that was UCLA’s offense last year. Coincidentally, UCLA was annihilated in Eugene, 60-13.
Nevada, as a football program, has been on an upward trajectory in recent years. But they do not have the athletes or depth to compete with Oregon, or come anywhere near competing. The truth is last year was something like Halley’s Comet – look out for the Wolf Pack in 75 years or so.
Just two years ago, Nevada opened the season at an average Notre Dame team and lost 35-0. That Nevada team was considerably better than this year’s, and Oregon is head and shoulders above that Irish team. It’d be nice if the wiseguys would stop pushing this line, but it shouldn’t really matter. The only thing that could beat Oregon is Oregon. But if the Ducks don’t lay an egg, this should be a laugher. Lay the points.
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