The Saints opened as 14 point favorites, and some reverse action has brought the line down to 13 at most sites; the squares are backing New Orleans at just under 70%. The total started at 44 ½ points, and more reverse action has pulled that down to 43 or 43 ½ points; the public is liking the over at better than 70%. While we like the Browns getting 13 points, following the wiseguys to the under feels like a better bet.
The situational numbers point to the under as well. Since 1992, Cleveland has played the total 0-10 against the NFC South and 5-17 in dome games. In the past 3 seasons, the Browns have been 13-17 as an underdog, 8-10 on the road, and 3-6 in non-conference games. For the Saints over the past 3 seasons, they’ve played the total 3-6 in non-conference games, 15-14 as a favorite, and 11-8 at home. Although New Orleans has trended more to the over, Cleveland has clearly played the under more often than not.
With all of the injuries to both teams, this game lines up perfectly for the under. The Saints are without Reggie Bush, who broke his leg a couple weeks ago. Pierre Thomas didn’t play last week and is listed as questionable. Both Jake Delhomme and Seneca Wallace have ankle injuries, which means Colt McCoy will start this week against the Saints. Josh Cribbs and Mohamed Massaquoi are both likely out for this weekend with head injuries. Basically, both teams are really banged up and have to play without some major contributors.
Another reason to like the under is the Saints’ defense, which has been outstanding this season. They’re giving up just over 300 yards per game, which is commendable, especially considering how the defense has always been the weakness of this team. Now the Saints get a rookie quarterback in his second start on a below average team on the road.
Speaking of Colt McCoy, he did a decent job against Pittsburgh last week. I didn’t expect him to do that well, but even still, he managed to lead his team to just 10 points. This week he has fewer weapons, though he doesn’t have to play the Steeler defense. Nevertheless, the Saints’ D has been playing good football, too.
Additionally, the Saints’ offense has underperformed this season. The running game just hasn’t been there, although they were great against the Bucs last week. For the season, however, New Orleans is averaging fewer than 100 yards rushing per game.
The Browns’ defense has been solid this year. They’ve been good against the run, and the most points they’ve given up in a game is 28, which came against the Steelers last week. Even if they give up 28 points to the Saints, it’s hard to imagine Cleveland getting more than 2 touchdowns. 28-14 – Saints.
The squares like the over in this game, but the sharps are pulling the line down. Keep in mind that both teams have significant injuries, the Saints’ defense is playing well, and the Browns are starting a rookie quarterback. Back the under, and try to get it before the sharps bring it down to 42.
You can get more free football picks on the free NFL picks page of the site which offers our plays via our newsletter signup. You can also view the premium pick packages we offer on that page. The wiseguys at Maddux Sports have been all over the spread this season. They have another full slate of winning games. Get on board with the professionals at Maddux. Their clients have been lining their pockets with cash, and you can, too. Sunday sees our 20 unit Sunday night football game of the year, dont miss this easy winner.
