The Hokies opened as 1 ½ point road favorites and the college football lines has gone up slightly, sitting at 2 or 2 ½ points at most sites. Importantly, Jacory Harris has been downgraded to doubtful with a concussion he suffered a couple weeks ago against Virginia. That gives this nice line a little more value. I’ll take Va Tech’s defense over a freshman quarterback.
Some people are starting to say that Jacory Harris getting hurt was a good thing for Miami. Don’t buy into that. Miami has managed to win their last two games against Maryland and Georgia Tech, but Va Tech is a much better team than either the Terrapins or Ramblin’ Wreck. The Hokies are playing the best football in the ACC, hands down. This is a lot to ask of a young quarterback.
On the other side of the field, Virginia Tech’s senior quarterback has been good all season long. Tyrod Taylor will be the difference maker in this game. Taylor is an agile quarterback who can punish a defense with his legs. But his ability to make good decisions and accurate throws is often overlooked.
Additionally, the Hokies have had extraordinary balance. Both the running and passing games are averaging better than 200 yards per game; there aren’t many teams in the country that can boast that statistic.
Miami’s biggest problem has been stopping the run. For the season, the Canes have allowed 160 yards rushing per game. They’ve been soft up front. If they can’t stop the Hokies on the ground, their freshman quarterback is going to have to play an exceptional game. That isn’t a good scenario for the Hurricanes.
The technical numbers are a big reason to back the road favorite Hokies in this game. Against the spread over the past three seasons, Va Tech is 9-4 on the road, 6-2 as a road favorite, 10-5 against teams with a winning record, 7-3 in November, and 5-2 when the line is +/- 3 points. Miami, on the other hand, has been 6-8 ats at home, 0-1 as a home underdog of three points or less, 4-6 in November, and 5-5 when the line is +/- 3 points.
Virginia Tech should be favored by more than a field goal. They’ve been a solid road favorite and easily the most consistent team in the ACC. They’re playing a Miami team missing its experienced signal caller. Don’t be afraid to lay a few points with the Hokies – they’re the way to go in this game.
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