The betting line for this game has seen a big swing. Penn State opened as a 19 point favorite, but through the week the college football betting line was steamed down to 13 ½ points. The public was all over Temple earlier in the week, and sharp money on Temple has also worked to bring the line down. Some sites are still posting the game at 13 ½, but there has been some buy back starting late Wednesday night into Thursday that has pushed the line back up to 14 points with most books. Don’t be surprised if the line goes further up to somewhere between 14 ½ and 15 ½ points, especially after considering the squares are back on the side of the Nittany Lions at close to 60%.
The drastic drop from the opening line to now has created great value for Penn State in this game. If you can still find a book listing the game at 13 ½ points, we think it’s a good play. But even 14 points represents nice value, so don’t be afraid to back the Nittany Lions.
Penn State is a predictable 2-1, with wins over Youngstown State and Kent State, and a loss to mighty Alabama. Impressively, the Lions’ defense is giving up fewer than 13 points per contest. They’re coming off a shutout against Kent State, and against Alabama they yielded 24 points in Tuscaloosa, which is actually quite an achievement.
The offense has a great running back in Evan Royster, a 2009 1st team all-Big 10 selection. Stephfon Green is a more than capable back-up who has a little better speed than Royster. The running game is buoyed by an experienced offensive line, anchored by another 1st team all-Big 10 selection, Stephen Wisniewski. On the outside, Derrick Moye and Graham Zug form one of the conference’s best receiving tandems. Quarterback Rob Bolden needs to be more consistent, but he is a true freshman. He’s made some great throws, and his ability to put pressure on a defense with his feet adds an element much like Bolden’s predecessor, Darryl Clark.
The Temple Owls are a good football team, too. There’s good reason for the sharps and squares to hit this line so hard through the week. They’ve had two close wins over Villanova and Central Michigan, and last week’s 30-16 triumph over UCONN. Tailback Bernard Pierce makes this team go. Against UCONN, Pierce accounted for all 3 offensive touchdowns, 2 on the ground and 1 through the air. Last season Pierce accumulated nearly 1,400 rushing yards and 16 tds, earning him 1st team all-MAC honors. Quarterback Chester Stewart, like Bolden, is a dual threat. He started the last 4 games of last season and has been good enough so far.
Last season the Owls defense was one of the best in the MAC, and most of the personnel are back. Like their quarterback Stewart, the defense has been good enough to date. However, against Villanova they had trouble with the Wildcats passing efficiency and 3rd down conversions. And their only real test has been against UCONN, which piled up 240 yards on the ground. At the same time, though, the defense scored a touchdown in the fourth quarter to swing the game. This is an experienced group, but do they have enough to match up with Penn State?
This will be the Owls’ first road game of the season, and they have to go to one of the toughest places to play in college football. With all of Penn State’s weapons and a rocking stadium, Temple will need to play a flawless game to compete. The betting line has a great deal of value for Penn State, thanks to early money on the Owls. Don’t miss out on the Lions covering a reduced spread.
The professionals at Maddux Sports have isolated a number of easy plays for this Saturday. Currently on a 18-5 run with our NCAA picks be sure to sign up for our winning college football picks to ensure a profitable week 4 in college football.
