Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan St Spartans, Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Michigan
Saturday, October 16, 2010, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: Big Ten Network
Opening Line: Michigan St -7 1/2
Current Line: Michigan St -7
Opening Total: 51
Current Total: 51
Money Line: MSU -275 / Illinois +235
Coach Ron Zook takes his 3-2 Illinois football team into East Lansing to take on the 6-0 Michigan St Spartans. This Illini team might be better than people thought, after a 33-13 victory at Penn St. Of course Penn St might be a tad overrated, but it was still an impressive victory. The Illini’s two losses are narrow losses to #1 Ohio St and #21 Missouri. Meanwhile, Michigan St is 6-0 and ranked #13 in the country. It has been an emotional roller coaster for the Spartans as Coach Mark Dantonio had a heart attack following the Spartans overtime victory over Notre Dame on a fake field goal. He missed a few games but is now coaching from the press box. Michigan St has done well against Illinois since 1992. The Spartans are 9-3 against the spread and 10-2 straight up, and that also includes a 4-1 record at home both ATS and SU in the same period.
As usual, Coach Zook is on the hot seat for the Illini. The Illini have had a tough schedule so far, and are still 3-2. They have a good shot of going to a bowl game which might save Zook’s job. The Illini are outgaining opponents 353-305 and outscoring them 24-17. The main problems for the Illini are penalties and turnovers. They give up almost 56 yards a game due to penalties and have 10 turnovers so far. The Illini have forced 7 turnovers and 12 sacks themselves. The Illinois offense is led by their running game, as they average almost 218 yards a game, which is the 19th ranked rushing game in the country. Running back Mikel Leshoure (104 carries, 597 yards, and 3 touchdowns) and quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase (59 carries, 277 yards and 2 touchdowns) take most of the carries. Scheelhaase is better with his legs than with his arms. He has only thrown for only 640 yards and 4 touchdowns with 4 interceptions. He throws the ball to two receivers on a regular basis. A.J. Jenkins has 20 catches for 282 yards and three touchdowns. Jarred Fayson has 20 catches for 161 yards and no touchdowns. No other Illini receiver has more than 5 catches.
The high-powered Spartans are outgaining their opponents 473-337 and outscoring them 36-18. Like Illinois Michigan St has had problems with penalties, turnovers, and protecting the quarterback. They are giving up 71 yards a game on penalties, 9 turnovers and 13 sacks. The Spartans have forced 14 turnovers including 9 interceptions of their own. The Spartans are rushing for 225 yards a game which is the 15th ranked in the country. Halfbacks Edwin Baker (97 carries, 683 yards, and 6 touchdowns) and Le’Veon Bell (71 carries, 549 yards, and 8 touchdowns) get the vast majority of the carries. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has been brilliant this year, throwing for 1415 yards, 10 touchdowns and 4 interceptions so far this season. He throws to three receivers mostly, Mark Dell (19 catches, 356 yards, 2 touchdowns), Keshawn Martin (22 catches, 288 yards, 1 touchdown), and B.J. Cunningham (22 carries, 255 yards, and 3 touchdowns). Although 4 other Spartan players have at least one touchdown catch.
These two teams are very similar statistically. Both run the ball very well, and are prone to turnovers and penalties. Michigan St throws the ball better and scores more points. This could be a potential letdown game for the Spartans as they are coming off victories over ranked rivals Wisconsin and Michigan. Illinois is a tough gritty team and had chances to beat Missouri and Ohio St. Both of these teams have stingy defenses and don’t give up a lot of yards or points. The Spartans will be without starting defensive back Chris Rucker who is suspended for this game. Michigan St is trying to go 7-0 for the first time since 1966 when they won the national title. The last time they were 6-0 was in 1999 under Nick Saban in his last year as the Spartans coach. The weather will be in the 50’s but no precipitation is expected.
We offer free sports picks via our newsletter and you can get signed up for it on our free college football picks page but we also occasinally throw a free winner out on the blog like we are going to do today. For this game we like Michigan State to cover the 7 and feel that the Illini are in a good letdown spot. While this is a decent play we have isolated 7 games for Saturday that we love including a rare 20 unit game of the year pick. Get these winners by visiting our college football predictions page and start your weekend off on a winning note.
