The Kansas State Wildcats are one of college football’s biggest surprises this season. After traveling to Miami and beating the Hurricanes on their home field, the Wildcats avoided a letdown last week by nipping then-ranked Baylor 36-35. They’ll look to keep their momentum rolling when they host the Missouri Tigers this Saturday.
Mizzou opened as a 3 point road favorite and the line hasn’t moved much. It initially moved to 3 ½, came back to the opening number and is currently hovering between 3 ½ and 4 points. Although the Tigers have owned this series in recent years, Kansas State is on a roll. For a free pick this week, consider backing the home underdog.
There are a few elements to K State that make the Wildcats an attractive underdog. Beyond the fact that they’re getting points at home, their defense has been playing outstanding football so far this season. Granted, they gave up 35 points last week. But that came against an underrated offense with maybe the best player in college football under center. Robert Griffin III has been lighting up every defense he faces, but a late interception – the first of his season – set up the Wildcats for the go ahead and ultimately winning field goal. Arthur Brown is the one who snatched Griffin’s pass, and Brown – at least in the early season – looks like the Big 12 defensive player of the year. Even after giving up 35 last week, the Wildcats are holding their opponents to just 16.5 points per game.
Another reason for liking K State is the play of Collin Klein. Klein has been brilliant this season. He leads the team in rushing with a staggering 423 yards on 91 carries – quite a load for a qb thru just 4 games. Through the air he has completed over 55% of his passes for just shy of 500 yards. While those numbers don’t jump off the page, he has 6 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions. In other words, he takes care of the ball. Between his overall offensive production and his ability to take care of the football, Klein has really stepped up this season.
Missouri has played better than their record indicates, which is why they’re favored in this game. They’re only 2-2, but their two losses have come at Arizona State and Oklahoma. Against the Sun Devils, Mizzou had a chance to win in regulation but kicker Grant Ressel missed a long field goal. The game went into overtime and the Tigers couldn’t pull off the upset. Against the Sooners, Mizzou jumped out to an early 14-3 lead but didn’t score again until the fourth quarter, losing 38-28. In each case the Tigers covered the spread as an underdog.
Sophomore James Franklin has played surprisingly well for Missouri and seems to be getting better week to week. However, Missouri’s backfield has been hit hard by injuries. Both Kendial Lawrence and De’Vion Moore returned to practice this week, but their statuses for Saturday is still unclear. Henry Josey has picked up the slack, though. Josey ranks 5th nationally with 133.3 rushing yards per game.
It’s worth pointing out that in both road games Missouri has been lined as an underdog, not a favorite. The Tigers lost both games but still covered the spread. Going into K State as a favorite is a decidedly different situation. Getting a near-victory won’t be good enough for bettors who back Mizzou. That’s all we care about here.
Kansas State hasn’t beaten Missouri since 2005, so that’s part of the reason why they’re the favorite in this game. But it’s hard to fade a team as hot as Kansas State, especially at home getting 4 points. Consider backing the red-hot home ‘dogs in this one. Good luck!
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