The Arkansas Razorbacks and soon to be SEC member Texas A&M are set to square off this Saturday in the Southwest Classic, which is played in Cowboys Stadium. Last season Arkansas managed to hold off the Aggies for a 7 point win, narrowly covering the spread. This year both teams come into the game following disappointing losses, which makes this a big game for two teams with BCS bowl aspirations.
The Aggies opened as a 3 ½ point favorite, but early action on Arkansas has pulled that down to 2 ½ at most sites. The SEC has proven time and time again that they are a cut above the rest of the conferences in college football. Even though the Big 12 is rated ahead of the SEC as a conference, whenever a big time school from the SEC plays a nonconference game, I’m going to lean to the side of the SEC.
The Razorbacks had a tough day in Tuscaloosa last Saturday. They were outgained by about 175 yards in their 38-14 loss against Alabama. But at the same time, Alabama jumped out to a 24-7 lead by scoring touchdowns on a fake field goal, interception return, and punt return. To Alabama’s credit, they earned those touchdowns. But my point is that Arkansas really played better than the score indicated, and if not for those three unique touchdowns, the final score would’ve been much closer. I don’t think Arkansas would’ve won – Alabama is a great team with an awesome defense – but I think they would’ve kept the game close enough to probably cover the spread, which ended up being 11 or 12 points.
Texas A&M also lost straight up and against the spread last Saturday, but there’s was more heartbreaking than Arkansas’. The Aggies seemed to have the game well in hand, leading Oklahoma State 20-3 at halftime. But in the second half, Brandon Weeden torched the Aggies’ secondary. To make matters worse, the A&M ground game stalled and Ryan Tannehill had some costly interceptions. In the end, the Cowboys won 30-29, with a meaningless safety ending the game.
I expect both teams to suffer from some kind of a hangover, considering each needed to win last week’s game to have a serious shot at winning their respective conference. But I think the Aggies will be in worse shape. Losing a home game against a top 10 team after leading by 17 at halftime … that’s the kind of loss that could derail a season. Furthermore, the Razorbacks were double digit road underdogs for their game against arguably the best team in the country; the Aggies were 4 point home favorites. Arkansas was supposed to lose; A&M wasn’t.
Also, the Aggies secondary revealed some very significant problems. While Weeden is turning into a great college quarterback and Justin Blackmon is maybe the best talent in college football, the numbers are staggering. Weeden was 47-60 for 438 yards, 2 tds, and 0 ints. He also completed a pass to 11 different receivers, so it’s not as though Blackmon wrecked the secondary. It was a collective effort, with 3 receivers catching 10 or more passes. Now A&M has to battle a talented offense that just got done playing perhaps the best defense in the country (LSU clearly has an argument). The Hogs will be ready.
As much as anything else, I like a top tier SEC team on a neutral field against anyone, especially one getting almost a field goal. And if I had to pick, I’d take a Bobby Petrino college team over a Mike Sherman college team; one has a proven track record, while the other was on the brink of getting canned last year. Consider grabbing the points here. Good luck!
