Vandy started as 6 point road ‘dogs, but early money on UCONN has pushed the line up to 7 ½ points. The public is slightly in favor of the Commodores at just under 60%, which might mean some sharp money has come in on UCONN. While it’s typically wise to follow the wiseguys, they’ve actually created better value for Vandy.
As usual, the SEC is the best conference in the country, regardless of what Big 10 fans might say. Vandy has already played 2 quality opponents in conference: LSU and Ole Miss. Two weeks ago, the Commodores got spanked by LSU at home, 27-3, managing only 135 yards of offense. But the Tiger defense is one of the best in the country, which makes the statistics and outcome understandable. The following week Vandy traveled to Ole Miss and came away with a surprising 28-14 victory over Jeremiah Masoli’s new team. Vandy, an 11 ½ point underdog, rolled over the Rebels for 227 rushing yards and was +3 in turnovers.
Connecticut plays in the Big East, which looks to be having its most disappointing season in recent memory. West Virginia has been ok at best, Pittsburgh has underperformed, Cincinnati isn’t playing well, and UCONN has dropped two telling non-conference games already. In the first week of the season, UCONN was dismantled by the Michigan Wolverines. There’s no shame in giving up 30 points to that offense, but at the same time, there’s no excuse for scoring only 10 points against that defense. Two weeks ago, the Huskies lost at Temple, 30-16. Temple has a decent team, but they’re still a MAC team and UCONN was a 5 ½ point favorite. Granted, both of the Huskies’ losses have been on the road. But they didn’t come closer than 2 touchdowns in either case.
The key to this game will likely be in the rushing game, which is the bread and butter of both squads. Whichever team can establish itself in the trenches and move the line of scrimmage will ultimately be successful. Each team has shown the ability to run the ball effectively, but they’ve also shown a tendency for not being able to stop the run, either.
Both teams have played the spread well over the past 3 seasons. Vandy is a terrific 9-3 on the road, 12-7 as an underdog, 2-1 off the bye week, and 5-4 in non-conference games. UCONN is 7-5 at home, 8-6 as a favorite, 9-5 in non-conference games, and a spotless 5-0 when playing a team with a losing record. Regarding the total, which is either 47 ½ or 48 points, Vandy has played under 10 out of 13 road games and 10 out of 15 games as an underdog. UCONN has played over 9 out of 11 home games and 9 out of 13 games as a favorite. Something has to give.
This should be a close game, and Vandy at +7 ½ is the way to go. UCONN has the advantage of playing at home, but Vandy has been a great road team against the spread. They’re coming off a bye week, so they’ve had an extra week to prepare. And in their last road contest Vandy won straight up as an 11 ½ point underdog. Even at +6, Vandy seems like a solid play. But thanks to the line move, the Commodores have even better value at +7 ½.
The wiseguys at Maddux Sports have been beating the college football spreads at over 70% this season. On Saturday they have 7 strong college football picks including their 20 unit game of the year. Their premium picks are guaranteed, so you have nothing to lose but losing itself.
