Utah opened as a 5 ½ point road favorite, and despite the squares playing the Utes at over 95%, the line hasn’t moved that much. Some books have come down to 5 points, others have moved up to 6, and a few have stuck with the opening number. Considering the way the public is playing Utah, some sharp money has obviously come in on Notre Dame. But the value lies with Utah. Not only have sharps kept the line down, but also the Irish are missing their starting quarterback, Dayne Crist. All things considered, Utah is the way to go in this match up.
Utah has been one of college football’s most dominant teams this season. Forgetting their butt whooping against TCU, the Utes have throttled their opponents. They’re 6-1 as a favorite and have a balanced offensive attack. Further, the defense is surprisingly physical and predictably disciplined. This is a good football team.
Notre Dame, on the other hand, isn’t that good. It’s surprising that the Irish have struggled as much as they have with Brian Kelly in town. There’s been a lot of criticism about Notre Dame not having as much talent, but they’ve still lost games they should’ve won. The game before the bye, Notre Dame lost at home to Tulsa, a middling Conference USA team.
To make matters worse, the Irish lost Crist in the game against Tulsa. Coach Kelly runs a unique offensive system, which makes it hard for a second string quarterback to step in late in the season and navigate the team.
The offense isn’t the only reason for concern in South Bend. The defense has underperformed all season long. Last week was representative of the Irish’s struggles. Tulsa put up 399 total yards, with 203 coming on the ground and 196 yards through the air. Notre Dame couldn’t do anything to stop Tulsa at home. How in the world are they going to hold down a much better offense, with more talented, physical athletes?
There are some situational numbers that support Utah, too. Against the spread over the past three seasons, Utah is 15-10 as a favorite, 9-7 on the road, 7-4 in non conference games, and 6-3 in November. Additionally, they’re 2-0 coming off a straight up loss and 8-1 against teams with a losing record. On the flip side, Notre Dame is 5-11 ats at home, 5-4 as an underdog, 2-6 in November, and 3-0 coming off the bye.
It’s surprising to see this line sitting in the 5-6 point range, which concerns me a little bit. Whenever I think a line is too good to be true, it usually is. But the more I think about it, there’s no reason not to back Utah in this game. The last time Utah played in a non conference game they went to Ames, Iowa to play Iowa State as a 5 ½ point favorite. The Utes won by 41 points. They’re playing a team similar to Iowa State’s caliber without its starting quarterback. The line has been slimmed thanks to Utah’s drubbing against TCU. Don’t be afraid to lay the points here; Utah should roll the Irish.
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