The Trojans opened as 7 point favorites, but the college football lines has trickled down to 5 ½ at most sites. The public is all over USC, playing the home team at better than 95%. That means the sharps are laying down some serious money on the Sun Devils in this match up. This type of reverse action is a good indication that the wiseguys have found a profitable read on the game. Although USC has a wealth of talent, consider fading this public favorite and following the sharps to the Sun Devils with the points.
While it’s difficult to speculate on the collective mindset of a football team, it’s hard to imagine USC being prepared for this game. For one, as mentioned above, the Trojans aren’t able to play in a bowl game. So even though they come into the game with 5 wins, their season ends when they play their cross-town rivals – the UCLA Bruins – in early December. While no one likes losing, the Trojans don’t have the motivation to win like other teams. Namely, Arizona State.
The one game that really mattered to USC went down last week against Oregon. If the Trojans had toppled the mighty Ducks, they could make a claim to being the best team in the Pac 10, regardless of their bowl status. They had their bye week to prepare for Oregon and gave Oregon a good game. But in the end, the defense was too weak and the offense couldn’t score in the fourth quarter. USC was visibly dejected, perhaps because they put all of their eggs in the Oregon basket.
Now, with no chance to play in a bowl and after losing their one shot at making a national statement, USC hosts an underrated Sun Devil team. All season, Lane Kiffin has had a difficult time getting his players to commit to the 2010 campaign. The game after losing to Oregon is going to be the most difficult time to get his team to focus.
Arizona State shouldn’t have any trouble locking into this game. They’re sitting at .500 after throttling Washington State, easily covering the spread by 3 touchdowns. The team has a decent chance of going to a bowl, but the problem is that they still have to play Stanford at home and their instate rival, Arizona, in Tucson. If you chalk up those two games as losses, that means the Sun Devils need to win against UCLA at home and at USC in this game. In other words, if Arizona State hopes to make a bowl, this amounts to being a must win game.
ASU has played reasonably well on the road. They should’ve beaten Wisconsin in Madison, but some bad bounces and a blocked PAT led to a 1 point loss. They lost to Oregon State by a field goal before James Rodgers was hurt and beat Washington by 10. At Cal, they got taken behind the woodshed, but the Bears are a great home team. They’ve played well in 3 of their 4 road games and could easily be 6-2. And don’t forget – the Sun Devils have played Oregon better than any other team. They put up 597 yards against the Ducks, and the only reason they lost was 7 turnovers. This is a solid football team that might be the most underrated team in the Pac 10.
All things considered, it’s easy to understand why the sharps are backing ASU – they’re the team to play here. The squares are killing the Trojans, but take a long, hard look at the Sun Devils in this game. They’re the team with something to play for.
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