Oklahoma Sooners at Cincinnati Bearcats
U.S. Bank Arena – Cincinnati, Ohio
Thursday, December 29, 2011, 9:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Opening Line: Cincinnati -4 1/2
Current Line: Cincinnati -6
Opening Total: 134 1/2
Current Total: 139
Opening Money Line: Cincinnati -200 / Oklahoma +170
Current Money Line: Cincinnati -260 / Oklahoma +220
Oklahoma coach Lon Kruger is garnering some early votes for national coach of the year. The Sooners are 9-1 this season, Kruger’s first with the program. Oklahoma is on NCAA probation and has scholarship restrictions and have overachieved this season, as they were picked to finish last in the Big 12. The only loss for Oklahoma came to a talented St. Louis team in a tournament championship game in Anaheim last month. The Sooners ahve won 5 straight games since then. Oklahoma has wins over Washington St, Santa Clara, Oral Roberts, Arkansas, and Houston.
The Sooners travel to Cincinnati to take on the 9-3 Bearcats, coached by Mick Cronin. The Bearcats are 4-0 since a loss to crosstown rival Xavier a few weeks ago. That game was marred by an ugly brawl that ended the game. Cincinnati still has 3 players that are suspended and won’t be eligible to return until next week as a result. Forwards Yancy Gates and Octavius Ellis are suspended along with center Cheikh Mbodj until January 4. Cincinnati also has losses to Presbyterian and Marshall both at home. The Bearcats have wins over Miami-Ohio, Georgia, and Wright St. Cincinnati leads the series 3-2 against Oklahoma. The Bearcats won last year in Oklahoma City 66-56 against the Sooners.
Oklahoma is outscoring opponents 79-65 this season. The Sooners are shooting 45.1% from the field, including 41.3% from 3 point range. Oklahoma makes 73.3% of their free throws. Oklahoma averages 42.2 rebounds a game, and have a rebounding margin of +8.8. The Sooners are fourth in the nation in rebounding. Oklahoma averages 14.7 assists, 12.5 turnovers, 3.9 blocks, and 7 steals a game. Sooner opponents are shooting 41% from the field including 32.6% from 3 point range. Oklahoma forces 15.2 turnovers a game.
Oklahoma guard Steven Pledger averages 19.8 points, 4 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.4 steals a game. Pledger leads the Sooners in scoring and steals, and is shooting 49% from 3 point range. Calvin Newell Jr. was the second leading scorer but left the program at the beginning of this month. Andrew Fitzgerald averages 11.5 points, and 5.4 rebounds a game. Romero Osby averages 10 points, 8.8 rebounds to lead the team, 1.1 assists, and 1 block a game to lead the team. Cameron Clark averages 9.8 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.6 assists. Sam Grooms averages 5.2 assists to lead the team.
Cincinnati is outscoring teams 73-57 this season. The Bearcats are shooting 46.2% from the field, including 40.5% on three pointers. The Bearcats are shooting 61.6% from the free throw line. Cincinnati pulls down 36.3 rebounds a game, and have a rebounding margin of +3.5. Cincinnati averages 13.7 assists, 12.6 turnovers, 7.8 steals, and 5.8 blocks a game. Cincinnati opponents are shooting 39.4% from the field, including 30.7% from 3-point range. The Bearcats force 15.8 turnovers a game.
Cincy guard Sean Kilpatrick is averaging 15.4 points to lead the team, 4.4 rebounds, 1.7 assists a game, and 1.6 steals a game to tie for the team lead. He is shooting 41.3% from 3 point range. Gates was averaging 13.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1 assists, and 1.1 blocks a game before the suspension. Dion Dixon averages 13.3 points, 3.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.6 steals a game. Guard Cashmere Wright averages 11.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, 5.1 assists to lead the team, and 1.3 steals a game. Jaquon Parker averages 10.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 1.6 assists a game. Justin Jackson averages 5.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.9 blocks a game to lead the team. Ellis is out until early January with a broken hand in addition to being suspended. Forward Shaquille Thomas is out indefinitely because of eligibility issues.
Oklahoma is 4-3 against the spread and the total is also 4-3 this season. Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS and the total is 4-2 this season. The Sooners are 6-2 ATS against teams with winning records, 8-3 after a straight up win, 23-47-3 in road games, 2-5 against Big East teams, 3-9 in Thursday games, and 2-6 in road games against teams with winning home records. The Bearcats are 4-0 ATS against Big 12 teams, 10-22 at home, 2-5 overall, 1-4 after a straight up win of 20 points or more, and 1-5 after a straight up win.
I know Cincinnati is playing at home, and has won 4 straight games by an average of 34 points against inferior opponents. Having said all that, I think this line is a little strange. Cincinnati hasn’t faced a team as talented as Oklahoma since the Xavier loss. Throw in the fact that the Sooners are a tough and gritty team that has played a slightly more difficult schedule top to bottom, and this seems like a real upset possibility. Despite having only one player on the roster over 6’8″ the Sooners are still fourth in rebounding which is a sign of hustle and tough defense, a hallmark of every Kruger coached team.
