#23 Florida St Seminoles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Groves Stadium – Winston-Salem, North Carolina
Saturday, October 8, 2011, 12:30 pm Eastern, TV: ACC Network, ESPN Gameplan
Opening Line: Florida St -11
Current Line: Florida St -10
Opening Total: 48 1/2
Current Total: 52
Opening Money Line: FSU -400 / Wake +330
Current Money Line: FSU -390 / Wake +320

Just three weeks ago, Florida St was 2-0 and ranked #5 in the country. However, they lost 2 close games in a row to teams currently ranked in the the top 10 in the country. Florida St, coached by Jimbo Fisher, has wins over Louisiana-Monroe 34-0, and Charleston Southern 62-10, and losses to Oklahoma 23-13 and at Clemson 35-30. Now the Seminoles go on the road to take on the 3-1 Wake Forest Demon Deacons, who are coached by Jim Grobe. After a season opening 36-29 overtime loss at Syracuse, Wake Forest has won 3 games in a row including 2 conference wins. Wake Forest has home wins over North Carolina St 34-27, and Gardner-Webb 48-5, and last week at Boston College 27-19. This is the 30th meeting between the two schools, with Florida St leading the series 23-5-1. Florida St won last year Tallahassee 31-0. Florida St has won 2 in a row in the series, but the Demon Deacons had won 3 in a row before that.

Clemson led Florida St 28-17 at the end of third last week in Death Valley. Florida St tried to rally with 2 fourth quarter touchdowns but Clemson held on for the 35-30 win. The Seminoles had 365 total yards including 336 passing yards from back-up quarterback Clint Trickett who was playing for the injured E.J. Manuel. Manuel injured his shoulder in the second half of the Oklahoma game. He is listed as probable to return against Wake Forest. Trickett threw 3 touchdowns and an interception in the loss. Both teams had a turnover, but Florida St also had 11 penalties in the loss. Clemson had 443 total yards, including 344 passing yards.

Florida St is averaging 407.5 total yards a game and 34.8 points a game. The Seminoles are averaging 328 passing yards a game. The Seminoles have 6 turnovers and have allowed 12 sacks. Florida St is 24/51 on third and fourth down conversions. Florida St is 13/15 scoring in the red zone but have only 8 red zone touchdowns. Florida St is giving up 260 total yards a game and only 17 points. FSU is allowing 85.5 rushing yards and 174.5 passing yards. They are ranked in the top 15 in all categories except scoring defense which is #22.  The Seminoles have forced 4 turnovers and 10 sacks. FSU opponents are 20/62 on third and fourth down conversions, and 9/11 scoring in the red zone with 5 touchdowns. The Seminoles are averaging just under 9 penalties for 75 yards a game.

Quarterback Manuel is 59/88 passing with 666 yards, 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, along with 18 carries for 79 yards.  Trickett is 38/61 passing with 646 yards, 7 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions. The Seminoles are only averaging 79.5 rushing yards a game with three total touchdowns. James Wilder, Jr., Chris Thompson, and Devonta Freeman are the leading rushers but none has more than 81 yards combined in the four games. Thompson and Freeman each have a rushing touchdown. Receiver Rashad Greene has 14 catches for 294 yards with 5 touchdowns. Rodney Smith has 16 catches for 289 yards with 2 touchdowns.  Bert Reed has 7 catches for 64 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is listed as questionable with an ankle injury after missing the last 2 games. In fact, receivers Willie Haulstead, Josh Gehres, and Jarred Haggins are listed as doubtful or out against Wake.  Kicker Dustin Hopkins is 16/16 on extra points and 7/7 on field goals with a long of 53.

Last week, wake Forest traveled to Boston College. The Demon Deacons led 24-9 at the end of the third quarter but Boston College pulled to within 5 points. Wake Forest kicked a field goal with 3 minutes to play to extend the lead to 27-19. Wake held off a final drive by BC to secure the 8 point win and cover the one point spread. Wake Forest had 392 total yards including 288 passing yards.  Quarterback Tanner Price threw for 252 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Receiver Chris Givens had 7 catches for 132 yards and a touchdown. Wake Forest had just the one turnover and Boston College had 2 turnovers and 7 penalties. Boston College had 336 total yards.

Wake Forest is averaging 422.5 total yards a game including 314 passing yards. The Deacons are scoring 34.5 points a game. Wake had 4 turnovers and has allowed 8 sacks this season. The Demon Deacons are 33/70 on third and fourth down conversions, and 20/22 scoring in the red zone but they have only 11 touchdowns. Wake Forest is allowing 299.5 yards a game including 100 rushing yards. The Deacons are allowing 21.8 points a game. Wake Forest has forced 4 turnovers and 3 sacks this season. Wake opponents are 22/68 on third and fourth down conversions and 10/12 scoring in the red zone with 6 touchdowns.

Price is 80/127 passing for 1,119 yards, 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Running back Josh Harris has 78 carries, 276 yards, and 2 touchdowns with 3 catches for 13 yards. Brandon Pendergrass has 27 carries for 104 yards, and 2 touchdowns along with 3 catches for 22 yards. Givens has 27 catches for 498 yards, and 4 touchdowns, along wi8th 2 carries for 14 yards. Danny Dembry has 19 catches for 272 yards and a touchdown, along with a rushing touchdown on his only carry of the season. Michael Campanaro has 16 catches for 203 yards and 2 touchdowns and even has a touchdown pass this season. Kicker Jimmy Newman is 15/16 on extra points and 9/10 on field goals with a long of 40 yards.

Wake Forest is 3-1 against the spread this season and 3 of the 4 games have gone over the total. Florida St is 1-3 ATS and the total is 2-2 this year. The Seminoles have covered the spread two years in a row against Wake Forest. FSU is 5-11 ATS in the last 16 as a favorite of 10.5 or more, including 2-5 on the road, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games. Wake Forest is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 as a home underdog, 9-4 in the last 13 on turf, 5-2 in the last 7 home games, 4-1 in the last 5 overall, 2-5 in the last 7 conference games, and 0-5 as a home underdog of 10.5 points or greater.

Florida St had chances to beat both Oklahoma and Clemson, but the loss of Manuael really hurt them even though Trickett did well. Wake Forest probably isn’t as good as their record would indicate as NC State and Boston College are rebuilding and will finish near the bottom of the ACC standings. I don’t see a lot of points being scored in this game as both defenses are ranked in the top 20 in the country. I think this game could be closer than people think. A Wake Forest upset would solidify them as  a dark horse to win the ACC.Florida St needs the win to avoid an 0-2 hole in conference play.

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