The road Packers opened as 3 point favorites, but the line has come down over the course of the week. Now most books are listing the game at 2 ½ points although Bodog does have +3 on the Skins. The squares are killing the Packers at nearly 90%, but sharp money has brought the line down. That type of reverse action is a good indication that the wiseguys are backing the Redskins.
Both teams have been hit hard by injuries. The Packers started the season without Al Harris, who is on the PUP list through the first 6 games of the season. Ryan Grant is out for the year, and now Nick Barnett is, too. Each player is a big contributor for this team, which is perhaps why the Pack has struggled to put teams away.
The Redskins are without Clinton Portis for 4-6 weeks, who has an injured groin. Albert Haynesworth will likely miss this game as he grieves his brother’s passing. And Donovan McNabb is a little banged up, but that always seems to be the case.
The situational numbers tend to favor the Packers in this match-up. Against the spread over the past 3 seasons, Green Bay is 11-7 on the road, 14-11 as a favorite, 15-12 against conference opponents, and 2-1 against the NFC East. On the flip side, Washington is 6-11 at home, 11-9 as an underdog, 12-13 against conference opponents, and 1-1 against the NFC North.
The Packers came into this season as a popular pick to win the Super Bowl. But they haven’t played up to expectations so far. The main reason seems to be the absence of Ryan Grant. The Green Bay ground game has been unproductive; the only time the team has rushed for more than 100 yards is against Philadelphia in week 1 – the only game that Grant played in. For the season, the Pack is averaging 94 yards rushing per game on 3.9 yards per game. That puts a lot of pressure on Aaron Rodgers to basically win the game himself.
Washington has been tough at home so far. They beat Dallas in week 1, and then blew a big lead to Houston, ultimately losing in overtime by a field goal. They lost a humiliating game to the Rams in St. Louis, but followed that up by beating the upstart Eagles in Philadelphia. That was a big win for Donovan McNabb, who exacted revenge on the team that let him go.
The Packers haven’t performed up to par, and are somewhat lucky to be 3-1. They could’ve easily lost to Philly in week 1 or against Detroit last week. However, by the same token, they could’ve easily beaten Chicago on the road. But they haven’t been able to dominate opponents the way good teams should. The defense has played well, but the offense is not as unstoppable as most people expected.
The wiseguys like the Redskins in this game, which means they’ve seen some situational numbers in favor of Washington. The Pack has some big injury issues and has to travel a long ways to play a team coming off a big win. Getting 3 points would’ve been nice, but playing the ‘Skins as 2 ½ point underdogs is a decent play.
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