The Falcons opened as 4 point road favorites, but the college football betting lines have come down to 1 point at most sites with a couple checking in at 1 ½. The squares are playing SDSU at nearly 2:1, but the main reason for the significant line move is a great deal of sharp money that has come in on the Aztecs. The wiseguys usually have a good read on games, and we think they’re spot-on in this match-up.
Air Force seems to have a slight advantage with respect to the technical numbers. Against the spread over the past three seasons, the Falcons are 7-5 on the road, 4-2 as a road favorite, and 4-7 against teams with a winning record. San Diego State is 5-6 at home, 9-9 as an underdog, and 3-5 against teams with a winning record. That being said, SDSU is 3-1 ats this season, while Air Force is only 2-3. Importantly, the Falcons have failed to cover in their past 3 games.
The Aztecs have been especially good at home this year. Although they’ve played Nicholls State and Utah State, SDSU has been dominant on their home field, winning the two games by a combined score of 88-7. At home, their numbers have been off the chart. The Aztecs are averaging 517 total yards per game, including 5 yards per carry and completing passes at nearly 69%. The defense has been similarly spectacular. The D is giving up a meager 208 yards, 2.6 yards per carry, and a pass completion percentage of only 45.6.
The team is led by Ryan Lindley, an underrated junior quarterback. The offensive line is experienced, and Lindley has a fine stable of receivers to get the ball to. The defense plays a 3-4 scheme, and has 7 starters back from last year, so they have good experience. The linebackers are probably the weakest element of the D, which is unfortunate considering they have to play against Air Force’s triple option attack.
Air Force has been solid so far. Their only loss was at Oklahoma, and that came by just a field goal. The offense is rolling up 365 rushing yards per game, with 5.4 per carry. The defense has been great, giving up 327 yards per game and only 149 yards passing.
The Falcons are led by senior quarterback Tim Jefferson, who seems like he’s been at Air Force long enough to be a Colonel by now. The team had to rework its entire offensive line from last year, but has a wealth of experience at the skilled positions. Perhaps the strongest aspect of this team, believe it or not, is the secondary. The Falcons have two top notch cornerbacks and a good safety in Jon Davis. Air Force likely has the best secondary in the Mountain West Conference.
This should be a good, physical football game. It’s worth noting that these two teams have played under in each of the last two seasons, and 6 out of 7 times in games at San Diego since 1992.
It’s also worth pointing out that SDSU has covered the spread against Air Force in the past two years. Maybe the Aztecs are starting to figure out the triple option. The wiseguys like San Diego State, and considering how well they’ve played at home, don’t be afraid to back the Aztecs.
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