The Aggies opened as 2 ½ point road favorites, but over the course of the week the college football odds have swung to the Bulldogs being favored by a point at most sites. The squares were hitting the Aggies early on, but now they’re on the side of the Bulldogs at nearly 3:1. While this isn’t typical reverse action, the sharps are the reason for this line swing. The wiseguys have been laying down some big money on the Bulldogs, and following their lead feels like a good play.
The technical numbers lean toward Louisiana Tech. Against the spread over the past 3 seasons, the Bulldogs are 9-2 ats at home, 5-2 as a favorite, 7-0 off a loss against a conference rival, and 6-1 after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses. The Aggies have been solid in this situation, too. They’re 8-6 ats on the road, 13-7 as an underdog, 7-3 in October, and 5-2 against teams with a losing record. But with a good amount of sharp money coming in on La Tech, chances are the wiseguys have found some key situational plays that are decidedly in favor of the Bulldogs.
Utah State’s claim to fame this season was their week 1 loss to Oklahoma. The Aggies came in as a 5 touchdown underdog and lost by 7. They gave the Sooners more than they wanted. But they couldn’t handle their press very well. The next week they beat Idaho State – an FCS school – by 21 points and failed to cover the spread by 10 points. Then they lost to Fresno State at home and San Diego State on the road, and didn’t come close to covering either spread. They got their act together for a big game against an overrated BYU team, but chances are this will be another let-down for the Aggies. It’s tough to follow up such an emotional win with a road game against a conference opponent. And given the way Utah State collapsed after the Oklahoma game, don’t be surprised to see them lay an egg.
Louisiana Tech has struggled in their first season after Derek Dooley left for the Tennessee job. But that’s understandable given the Bulldogs’ schedule. La Tech won their first game at Grambling, and then got stomped at Texas A&M. They lost by 2 touchdowns to a decent Navy team at home, followed by a one point home loss to Southern Miss. Last week they lost at Hawaii, 41-21. In all honesty, they should be 1-4. In their two conference games, they covered Southern Miss at home, but not Hawaii on the road, which is always a difficult place to play. Look for the Bulldogs to finish their schedule with several more wins.
Louisiana Tech is particularly good in this situation, and since the wiseguys are playing them, they have to be a strong play for reasons most people are unaware of. Importantly, too, Utah State is looking at a let-down game after their win over BYU. The line has swung 3 ½ points, but Louisiana Tech is still only a 1 point favorite, which means La Tech simply needs to find a way to win the game. Expect the Bulldogs to get their second win on Saturday. Follow the lead of the wiseguys and back the Bulldogs.
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