Considering all of the talent and speed for Skip Holtz’s USF squad, 10 points deos feel like a few too many. You have to be impressed with the way USF has earned a level of national respectability. The football program began in 1996, played as an Independent in I-AA from ’97-’00, and jumped to I-A in 2001. Last year, Holtz replaced Jim Leavitt and South Florida continued their bullish ways, beating in-state rival Miami in overtime, and a pretty good Clemson team in its bowl game.
With all that USF has accomplished – and in a short period of time – how big would a win in South Bend be? If the Bulls can defeat #16 Notre Dame and all of its tradition in Indiana, the program would likely christen the victory as the biggest in school history. Personally, I love backing an underdog with a purpose. Especially one getting double-digit points.
Notre Dame might be the most storied program in all of college football. But in recent years, the Irish haven’t inspired much confidence. Aside from first year miracles for Charlie Weiss and Ty Willingham, Notre Dame has been pretty average. In Brian Kelley’s first season last year, the Irish won their last 4 games to end up 8-5. In fairness, they finished the season well enough, beating Utah, Army, USC, and Miami (FL) in its bowl game. But at the same time, ND’s wins over USC and Pittsburgh very easily could’ve gone the other way. Imagine ND loses those two tight games and they finish 5-7, without a bowl game. Pretty average.
What bothers me the most about Notre Dame is the absence of an offensive identity. You hear pundits talking about it all the time. Texas, for example, had nothing resembling an offensive identity last year. The Irish were supposed to sling the ball around in Brian Kelley’s spread offense. But Kelley showed a predilection for running the ball much more often than his teams at Cincinnati. So what does ND do this year? Move forward with Kelley’s spread, similar to his time at Cincy, or aim for balance like last year? Considering the uncertainty surrounding the quarterback situation, my guess is balance. If that’s the case, I think oddsmakers have inflated the spread by a few points. For me, this line should be in the neighborhood of 7 ½.
South Florida, however, has a more concrete identity – defense. The speed and athleticism of the Bulls is sure to give the Irish all sorts of problems. One of the biggest criticisms levied at South Bend is the depletion of the talent pool. How and why Notre Dame can’t pull in more blue chip recruits is beyond me. But I expect the talent edge to actually be in South Florida’s favor.
Offensively, look for USF to pound the football, work the play-fake, and get BJ Daniels out of the pocket. While Daniels can be terrible throwing from the pocket, he’s quite good putting the ball on receivers when he’s moving around. Additionally, the Bulls have Darrell Scott and Dontae Aycock available in the backfield; Scott transferred from Colorado, Aycock from Auburn. Each was highly sought after coming out of high school.
I do not expect Notre Dame to run away with this. I think South Florida simply has too much athleticism and purpose in this game to get blown out. And 11.5 points seem like an awful lot.
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