The Hurricanes opened as 12 ½ point home favorites, but that has been steamed down to 7 ½ or 8 points, depending upon the book. The squares are currently playing Miami at just above 55%, which might be an indication of some buyback on the Hurricanes. There might be some sharp buyback on the way, but the wiseguys are a big reason for the line dropping 5 points off the opener. They’re liking the Terrapins as one of their football picks this week, so consider backing Maryland in this cross-division ACC battle.
The main reason for siding with Maryland is the absence of Miami’s quarterback, Jacory Harris. Harris was knocked out of last week’s devastating loss to Virginia. Diagnosed with a concussion, Harris will be held out of this weekend’s game. Freshman Stephen Morris relieved Harris last week, and actually did an ok job. He had 2 touchdowns throwing and 1 rushing, along with 2 picks. Not too bad considering the situation.
But Maryland is a much better team than Virginia, especially defensively. The Terrapin defense hasn’t given up 100 yards rushing in their last 4 games. With Harris on the sidelines, look for Miami to try to establish their rushing game. But Maryland’s front 7 is pretty darn good. The linebackers are especially tough and comprise one of the best units in the ACC.
On the flip side, Miami’s rush defense has been gashed all season long. In their home game against Florida State, the Hurricanes gave up 298 yards on the ground! Even lowly Virginia put up 185 rushing yards against Miami. And the Hurricanes will be lining up against an offense that loves to pound the football. Da’Rel Scott and Davin Meggett are an effective one-two punch.
The Terrapins have done a nice job taking care of the football. In their last 5 games, Maryland has just 3 turnovers and they all came against Clemson. In the other 4 games, Maryland didn’t give away a single possession. Miami is a different story. Against Virginia alone, the Hurricanes had 5 costly turnovers. In their last 5 games, Miami has a total of 12 turnovers. To the Hurricanes’ credit, though, they’ve had a staggering 19 takeaways in their past 5 games. But Maryland is a ball control team, and it’s hard to imagine Miami collecting more than 2 turnovers from the Terrapins. Conversely, with a freshman quarterback making his first start against a 6-2 team, look for the Miami offense to continue to turn the ball over.
The Terps have come a long way from their 2-10 campaign last season. Ralph Friedgen has his boys playing some good football. They get Florida State and NC State at home to close the regular season, and therefore have a legitimate shot at winning the Atlantic division. They’ll give Miami all they want in this football game. While they may come up short, anything more than 7 points is still a decent play. Consider following the wiseguys and backing the Terps with the points.
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