The Chiefs opened as 9 point home favorites, and despite the public playing the Chiefs at nearly 60%, the line has dipped down to 7 ½ points with most books. However, 5 Dimes and SportBet are still posting the opening number, which is some extra value for Buffalo. With the public moving one way and the line going the other, the wiseguys are the reason. They’re backing the winless Bills this week, and that looks like a good lead to follow.
The Chiefs have been a pleasant surprise this season. They’re 4-2 straight up and 5-1 against the spread. But over the past three seasons, the Chiefs are 8-11 ats at home, 1-3 as a favorite, and 2-3 against the AFC East. The Bills, during the same time frame, are 12-7 ats on the road, 11-13 as an underdog, and 4-1 against the AFC West. They’re also 9-5 ats after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses. So given the situation, the numbers tend to favor the Bills to cover the spread.
The Bills’ offense has played much better since Ryan Fitzpatrick took over as starting quarterback. Against the Ravens last week, Buffalo put up over 500 yards off offense and 374 yards through the air. And that game was in Baltimore against one of the League’s elite defenses. In their last four games, the Bills have put up at least 26 points in three of those games; against the Jets they only scored 14 points.
The Chiefs have been solid all season. They lead the NFL in rushing yards per game and only have 4 turnovers all season. Charlie Weiss is quietly reasserting himself in the professional game. They had their way with the Jaguars last week, winning and easily covering as a 9 point favorite.
But in recent years the Bills have played well against the Chiefs in Kansas City. They won 16-10 last year and 54-31 the year before. In those two games, the Bills are +6 in turnovers. Also, Buffalo has rushed for 371 yards combined in those two games. While the Chiefs have the revenge factor, they’ve also lost at home to the Bills each of the past two seasons.
With how well Kansas City has played and with Buffalo failing to win in their first six games, a 7 ½ point spread looks inviting. But whenever you see a line that looks too good to be true, it probably is. The Bills have a situational advantage against the spread and they’ve played well against the Chiefs in Kansas City. The Bills offense has been clicking against some stiff competition. While the Chiefs will probably win the game straight up, Buffalo is the better play against the spread. The wiseguys definitely like Buffalo. Go ahead and grab the points and back the Bills.
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