Cal opened as a 2 ½ point home favorite, and the college football point spread has gone up to either 3 or 3 ½ points, depending upon the book. The public is playing the Bears at just under 60%. The total started at 52 points, but early betting has moved that up to 53 or 53 ½ points. The squares are hitting the over at better than 95%.
The Golden Bears got stomped at USC last week, 48-14. But that shouldn’t dissuade bettors from backing the Bears at home. This season, Cal is 3-0 at home. They’re winning by a combined margin of 140-17, which is ridiculous. The road is a different story as Cal is 0-3, losing by a margin of 110-54. That has been the m.o. of the Cal Bears – great at home, pitiful on the road.
The Sun Devils are coming off their bye week, so they’ll be well rested for this game. Prior to the bye, ASU went up to Husky Stadium and took down Washington, 24-14. Before that, however, they lost 3 in a row. In other words, ASU can be good, but they’ve been inconsistent.
The technical numbers tend to favor the Bears in this match-up. Against the spread over the past 3 seasons, Cal is 11-3 at home, 14-10 as a favorite, 9-0 in a home game where the total is between 49 ½ and 56 points, and 5-3 off a loss to a conference rival. For ASU, they’re 5-8 ats on the road, 7-9 as an underdog, 2-5 in a road game where the total is between 49 ½ and 56 points, 2-4 off a win against a conference rival, and 2-2 after a bye.
The situational numbers are a decent reason to back Cal in this match-up, but so is Shane Vereen. Vereen is one of the best running backs in the country. He is, without question, the best player on the California team and will be the best player on the field this Saturday. And the way the Sun Devils have struggled against the run, expect Vereen to have a big day.
Not counting their games against Portland State and Northern Arizona, Arizona State is giving up 160 yards rushing per game. At the same time, the pass defense is yielding just under 220 yards per game, which means the Sun Devils aren’t exactly shutting down offenses. Granted, they held Oregon to a little more than 400 yards, which is outstanding. But also keep in mind that in their 3 Pac 10 games, ASU is -8 in turnovers. On the flip side, Cal is +1 in turnovers in conference play.
Cal’s defense has had a couple lapses, but overall, they’ve been fairly good. Against Nevada and USC, the Bears got hammered. In each game, they gave up around 600 total yards. But outside of those two prolific offenses, Cal shut down UCLA, Arizona and Colorado. In those 3 games, the Bears gave up an average of 8 points per game. The Sun Devils’ offense is much closer to the latter 3 than the former 2.
In the past 2 years, Cal has won both games straight up, going 1-1 ats. Overall, though, the Golden Bears have been a money-making play at home. Don’t forget about the situational numbers, which are decidedly in favor of Cal. With quite a few big games going down this Saturday afternoon, don’t let this game fly under your radar. Back the Bears and you’ll be glad you did.
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