Tennessee Volunteers at LSU Tigers, Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Saturday, October 2, 2010, 3:30 pm, TV: CBS
Opening Line: LSU -14 1/2
Current Line: LSU -16 1/2
Opening Total: 44
Current Total: 42 1/2
Money Line: LSU -700 / Tennessee +500
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It is difficult to know what to make of these two long-time SEC rivals, though both have played 4 games already. Tennessee is 2-2 under first year coach Derek Dooley, but the schedule has been brutal so far and will only get worse. They have losses against two highly ranked teams Oregon and Florida, a blowout against Tennessee-Martin 50-0 and an overtime victory over Alabama-Birmingham 32-29. Meanwhile, LSU improved to 4-0 last week with a 20-14 victory over West Virginia. LSU continued it’s remarkable streak of under-performing as a favorite in their last 18 games. They failed to cover the 10 point number last week dropping their record as a favorite to 5-13. This is mainly due to Tiger coach Les Miles’ inability to manage the clock or make the right personnel moves. Though LSU has underperformed against the spread since 1992. The Tigers are 46-69 ATS at home in the time period, and they are 24-47 at home against conference opponents. Tennessee has done well in October road games since 1992, going 22-7 ATS. The Vols also do well in big games going 36-20 ATS in road games against teams with winning records in the same time period.
You can compare odds from multiple sportsbooks on Tennessee Vs LSU and all of the Saturday games on our college football betting lines page of the site.
I mentioned Tennessee’s schedule is very difficult. Having already played Oregon and Florida, the Vols travel to LSU this week, and then travel to a desperate and dangerous Georgia team next week. Then after a week off, they welcome top ranked Alabama to Knoxville before travelling to South Carolina. It is possible and maybe even likely that Tennessee could lose all four of those games. Despite the 50-0 nothing blowout of Tennessee-martin the Vols have only outscored their opponents 112-108. They have actually given up slight more yardage to their opponents getting out-gained 1450-1445 so far this season. it is remarkable how similar Tennessee’s numbers are to their combined opponents. Tennessee has out-rushed their opponents 585-566, and the opponents have slight more passing yards, 884-860. The Vols have scored 13 touchdowns and forced six turnovers, and have given up 13 touchdowns and 6 sacks. The Vols are having trouble protecting the quarterback giving up 14 sacks so far. Penalties have also been a problem as Tennessee has given up just over 6 a game. The offense has been ordinary in both rushing and passing. Quarterback Matt Simms has 836 yards passing, 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Running back Tauren Poole has 56 carries for 318 yards and 3 touchdowns. Poole injured his thigh against UAB, and is listed as questionable for the game against LSU. Wideout Denarious Moore has 14 catches for 220 yards and 4 touchdown catches.
LSU is ranked number 12 in the country and is 4-0 despite not having much of an passing offense and turning the ball over almost 3 times a game. They are winning mainly on the strength of a dominant defense and a solid running game. The defense is only giving up just over 250 yards a game and 12 points. They have forced 10 turnovers and have 11 sacks. The front seven is salivating at the prospect of facing the porous Volunteer offensive line. On offense, quarterback Jordan Jefferson has been awful throwing the ball, and is almost on the verge of being benched in favor of back-up Jarrett Lee. Jefferson has only thrown for 419 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. The two touchdowns came in the first game of the season against a depleted North Carolina team. Last week against West Virginia, Lee came in for a series and the Death Valley crowd erupted in mock cheers. The Tigers leading rusher is Stevan Ridley who has 75 carries for 434 yards, and 3 touchdowns.
On paper, LSU is clearly the better team as the Volunteers are in a rebuilding phase. But I just can’t keep but thinking of that 5-13 record ATS as a favorite for the Tigers. There is also a chance LSU overlooks this team as they have a showdown looming against Florida next week. The weather will be hot and muggy with temps in the mid 80’s, not surprisingly in the Bayou.
Maddux Sports would lean towards taking Tennessee plus the points in this game especially if you can get +17, but there are much better games on the Saturday board. We actually have our 20 unit WAC conference game of the year going and that should be an easy winner. 7 football picks in all and a great value for the college football bettor. Get these winning plays by visiting the college football sports picks page of the website.
